Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Turn-Based

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Sandbox?

Sandbox + Turn-Based

Of 20 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $220k, ×357 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $83k. Revenue is up 235% on the market; 19 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 356.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 235% on the market, 19 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Turn-Based
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $229k → $355k → $193k → $83k → $288k → $767k (still earning) → $35k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Turn-Based: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $83k (exactly $82,745)
Median $224k (exactly $224,078)
Top 25% $767k (exactly $766,544)
Top 5% $23M (exactly $23,095,425)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 126
Announced 19
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $16.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 235% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Turn-Based; all of the top 25% also carry 4X, Grand Strategy, Strategy
Price point
$16.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $16.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 36,815 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $83k, median $220k, 1 in 4 over $760k, 1 in 20 over $23M.

3 in 10 developers made under $83k. 2 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  4. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  5. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  6. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  7. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  8. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  9. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  10. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  11. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced
  12. + IncrementalFair196 devs · median $748 · 248 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: THREE KINGDOMS older $39.99 63,110 82% 1.9M $76M (exactly $75,713,067) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Wartales older $34.99 32,118 86% 964k $34M (exactly $33,714,265) Shiro Games
Stoneshard · EA older $24.99 34,149 74% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,601,505) Ink Stains Games
OCTOPATH TRAVELER™ older $59.99 13,923 85% 418k $25M (exactly $25,057,223) Square Enix, ACQUIRE Corp.
Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era · EA $39.99 19,251 86% 578k $23M (exactly $23,095,425) Unfrozen
ENDLESS Space™ 2 older $39.99 17,280 83% 518k $21M (exactly $20,730,816) AMPLITUDE Studios
Total War: MEDIEVAL II – Definitive Edition older $19.99 27,319 95% 820k $16M (exactly $16,383,204) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
ENDLESS Legend™ older $29.99 14,413 83% 432k $13M (exactly $12,967,376) AMPLITUDE Studios
Hero's Adventure: Road to Passion older $17.99 22,287 84% 669k $12M (exactly $12,028,294) 半瓶醋工作室(Half Amateur Studio)
Terra Invicta $39.99 9,057 80% 272k $11M (exactly $10,865,683) Pavonis Interactive
ENDLESS Legend™ 2 · EA $49.99 2,476 83% 74k $3.7M (exactly $3,713,257) AMPLITUDE Studios
ZEPHON $39.99 1,838 83% 55k $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) Proxy Studios
Heroes of Science and Fiction $29.99 852 89% 26k $767k (exactly $766,544) Oxymoron Games
Card Survival: Fantasy Forest · EA $21.99 1,135 76% 34k $749k (exactly $748,760) WinterSpring Games
NITRO GEN OMEGA $29.99 398 83% 12k $358k (exactly $358,081) DESTINYbit
Pile Up! $9.99 961 73% 29k $288k (exactly $288,012) Remoob
The Monster Breeder $29.99 272 91% 8.2k $245k (exactly $244,718) Fantasy Creations
Dead Weight $12.99 575 82% 17k $224k (exactly $224,078) Klukva Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.