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Should I ship a Turn-Based Sandbox?
Sandbox + Turn-Based
Of 20 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced.
Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $220k, ×357 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $83k. Revenue is up 235% on the market; 19 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $83k (exactly $82,745) |
|---|---|
| Median | $224k (exactly $224,078) |
| Top 25% | $767k (exactly $766,544) |
| Top 5% | $23M (exactly $23,095,425) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 20 |
| Released games | 126 |
| Announced | 19 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $16.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 235% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Sandbox
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Turn-Based
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Sandbox, Turn-Based; all of the top 25% also carry 4X, Grand Strategy, Strategy
- Price point
- $16.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $16.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 36,815 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $83k. 2 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.
Adjacent niches
Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FightingStrong odds
- + World War IIFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + CatsFair
- + SportsFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Trading Card GameFair
- + IdlerFair
- + IncrementalFair
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Total War: THREE KINGDOMS | older | $39.99 | 63,110 82% | 1.9M | $76M (exactly $75,713,067) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
| | Wartales | older | $34.99 | 32,118 86% | 964k | $34M (exactly $33,714,265) | Shiro Games |
| | Stoneshard | · EA older | $24.99 | 34,149 74% | 1.0M | $26M (exactly $25,601,505) | Ink Stains Games |
| | OCTOPATH TRAVELER™ | older | $59.99 | 13,923 85% | 418k | $25M (exactly $25,057,223) | Square Enix, ACQUIRE Corp. |
| | Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era | · EA | $39.99 | 19,251 86% | 578k | $23M (exactly $23,095,425) | Unfrozen |
| | ENDLESS Space™ 2 | older | $39.99 | 17,280 83% | 518k | $21M (exactly $20,730,816) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
| | Total War: MEDIEVAL II – Definitive Edition | older | $19.99 | 27,319 95% | 820k | $16M (exactly $16,383,204) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
| | ENDLESS Legend™ | older | $29.99 | 14,413 83% | 432k | $13M (exactly $12,967,376) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
| | Hero's Adventure: Road to Passion | older | $17.99 | 22,287 84% | 669k | $12M (exactly $12,028,294) | 半瓶醋工作室(Half Amateur Studio) |
| | Terra Invicta | $39.99 | 9,057 80% | 272k | $11M (exactly $10,865,683) | Pavonis Interactive | |
| | ENDLESS Legend™ 2 | · EA | $49.99 | 2,476 83% | 74k | $3.7M (exactly $3,713,257) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
| | ZEPHON | $39.99 | 1,838 83% | 55k | $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) | Proxy Studios | |
| | Heroes of Science and Fiction | $29.99 | 852 89% | 26k | $767k (exactly $766,544) | Oxymoron Games | |
| | Card Survival: Fantasy Forest | · EA | $21.99 | 1,135 76% | 34k | $749k (exactly $748,760) | WinterSpring Games |
| | NITRO GEN OMEGA | $29.99 | 398 83% | 12k | $358k (exactly $358,081) | DESTINYbit | |
| | Pile Up! | $9.99 | 961 73% | 29k | $288k (exactly $288,012) | Remoob | |
| | The Monster Breeder | $29.99 | 272 91% | 8.2k | $245k (exactly $244,718) | Fantasy Creations | |
| | Dead Weight | $12.99 | 575 82% | 17k | $224k (exactly $224,078) | Klukva Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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