Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Turn-Based

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Turn-Based game?

Crafting + Turn-Based

Only 16 developers shipped a Crafting Turn-Based game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Card Survival: Fantasy Forest, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $17k, ×26 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $2.9k. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 24 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 26.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 24 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Turn-Based
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2M → $168k → $33k → $132k → $5.4k (still earning) → $39k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Turn-Based: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $2.8k (exactly $2,844)
Median $17k (exactly $16,546)
Top 25% $132k (exactly $131,967)
Top 5% $749k (exactly $748,760)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 88
Announced 24
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $17.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting, Turn-Based; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Puzzle
Price point
$17.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Cute, Emotional
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $17.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 2,882 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.9k, median $17k, 1 in 4 over $130k, 1 in 20 over $740k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.9k. 6 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  4. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  5. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  6. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  7. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  9. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  10. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  11. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced
  12. + Co-opPoor odds208 devs · median $38k · 576 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
WitchSpring R older $34.99 6,858 95% 206k $7.2M (exactly $7,198,843) KIWIWALKS
Eiyuden Chronicle: Hundred Heroes older $49.99 3,164 75% 95k $4.7M (exactly $4,745,051) Rabbit & Bear Studios
Atelier Sophie 2: The Alchemist of the Mysterious Dream older $59.99 2,166 94% 65k $3.9M (exactly $3,898,150) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Bug Fables: The Everlasting Sapling older $19.99 5,198 97% 156k $3.1M (exactly $3,117,241) Moonsprout Games
UnderRail older $14.99 6,385 86% 192k $2.9M (exactly $2,871,334) Stygian Software
Terminus: Zombie Survivors older $19.99 4,340 94% 130k $2.6M (exactly $2,602,698) Longplay Studios
Card Survival: Tropical Island older $24.99 2,962 94% 89k $2.2M (exactly $2,220,611) WinterSpring Games
NEO Scavenger older $14.99 4,437 89% 133k $2.0M (exactly $1,995,319) Blue Bottle Games
Thea: The Awakening older $19.99 3,318 87% 100k $2.0M (exactly $1,989,805) MuHa Games
Dead Age older $14.99 4,407 83% 132k $2.0M (exactly $1,981,828) Silent Dreams
Card Survival: Fantasy Forest · EA $21.99 1,135 76% 34k $749k (exactly $748,760) WinterSpring Games
Urban Strife $34.99 653 69% 20k $685k (exactly $685,454) White Pond Games
Atelier Ryza: Ever Darkness & the Secret Hideout DX $39.99 257 76% 7.7k $308k (exactly $308,323) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Turnbound $14.99 446 78% 13k $201k (exactly $200,566) 1TK
Atelier Ryza 2: Lost Legends & the Secret Fairy DX $39.99 110 85% 3.3k $132k (exactly $131,967) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Atelier Ryza 3: Alchemist of the End & the Secret Key DX $39.99 102 80% 3.1k $122k (exactly $122,369) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Effulgence RPG $19.99 65 87% 2.0k $39k (exactly $38,980) Andrei Fomin
KAMiBAKO - Mythology of Cube - $29.99 37 64% 1.1k $33k (exactly $33,289) GRAVITY GAME ARISE
Don't Freeze: A Winter Card Survival · EA $17.99 31 74% 930 $17k (exactly $16,731) YOLO35GAMES
Ruinlander · EA $11.99 46 69% 1.4k $17k (exactly $16,546) wineviper

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.