Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-BasedTurn-Based + Chess

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Chess Turn-Based game?

Turn-Based + Chess

Only 12 developers shipped a Chess Turn-Based game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Gambonanza, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $600. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 13 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 13 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based + Chess
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $17k (still earning) → $360 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based + Chess: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $598 (exactly $598)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $17,383)
Top 5% $721k (exactly $721,319)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 38
Announced 13
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 400% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Chess
effort 1 / 10 · high · fully specified rules and known engines

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based, Chess
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 1,800 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $720k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 13 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + DragonsStrong odds7 devs · median $53k · 7 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashStrong odds8 devs · median $14k · 1 announced
  4. + SandboxFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  5. + HorrorFair16 devs · median $32k · 18 announced
  6. + CraftingFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  10. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $294k · 7 announced
  11. + 4XPoor odds16 devs · median $193k · 26 announced
  12. + MilitaryPoor odds20 devs · median $187k · 15 announced

All 110 pairs on the Turn-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Frozen Synapse older $24.99 1,108 89% 33k $831k (exactly $830,668) Mode 7
Gambonanza $14.99 1,604 74% 48k $721k (exactly $721,319) Blukulélé
Chess Ultra older $12.99 1,832 76% 55k $714k (exactly $713,930) Ripstone
Battle Chess older $19.99 110 81% 3.3k $66k (exactly $65,967) Interplay Entertainment Corp.
Egyptian Senet older $9.99 200 81% 6.0k $60k (exactly $59,940) Ezzat Studios
Chessaria: The Tactical Adventure (Chess) older $19.99 99 74% 3.0k $59k (exactly $59,370) Pixel Wizards
Khet 2.0 older $9.99 117 89% 3.5k $35k (exactly $35,065) BlueLine Games
Once a Pawn a King $11.99 54 55% 1.6k $19k (exactly $19,424) Clover Bite
Tabulo $9.99 58 91% 1.7k $17k (exactly $17,383) Noah Games
Militia older $5.99 90 94% 2.7k $16k (exactly $16,173) BrainGoodGames
Order Automatica $5.99 58 89% 1.7k $10k (exactly $10,423) New Beings
Solo Chess $9.99 5 60% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) NourSaiFR
A Game of Chaess $9.99 4 100% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Yohan Fabre (Gamezel)
Unto Deepest Depths $6.99 5 100% 150 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) McCollum Games
Checkers Kingdom $4.99 6 100% 180 $898 (exactly $898) Pinch Games
Mind Over Monarchy $3.99 5 100% 150 $598 (exactly $598) Wise Puppy
Top Check: A Chess Card Game $11.99 1 0% 30 $360 (exactly $360) Gliding Knight Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.