Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-BasedTurn-Based + Collectathon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Turn-Based game?

Turn-Based + Collectathon

Only 7 developers shipped a Collectathon Turn-Based game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Atelier Ryza: Ever Darkness & the Secret Hideout DX, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 8 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $14k, ×22 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $6.3k. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 8 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 22.4 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 8 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based + Collectathon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Turn-Based + Collectathon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $6.3k (exactly $6,296)
Median $14k (exactly $14,086)
Top 25% $81k (exactly $81,058)
Top 5% $132k (exactly $131,967)
Developers, 2 yr 7
Released games 35
Announced 8
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 150% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based, Collectathon
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $19.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 15,421 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $6.3k, median $14k, 1 in 4 over $81k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $6.3k. 8 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + DragonsStrong odds7 devs · median $53k · 7 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashStrong odds8 devs · median $14k · 1 announced
  4. + SandboxFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  5. + HorrorFair16 devs · median $32k · 18 announced
  6. + CraftingFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  7. + Perma DeathFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  8. + ArcadeFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  9. + ChessFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  10. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $294k · 7 announced
  11. + 4XPoor odds16 devs · median $193k · 26 announced
  12. + MilitaryPoor odds20 devs · median $187k · 15 announced

All 110 pairs on the Turn-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Atelier Sophie 2: The Alchemist of the Mysterious Dream older $59.99 2,166 94% 65k $3.9M (exactly $3,898,150) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Coromon older $19.99 6,327 85% 190k $3.8M (exactly $3,794,302) TRAGsoft
DRAGON QUEST MONSTERS: The Dark Prince older $39.99 1,158 71% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,389,253) Square Enix
Siralim Ultimate older $19.99 2,145 92% 64k $1.3M (exactly $1,286,356) Thylacine Studios
Atelier Sophie: The Alchemist of the Mysterious Book DX older $39.99 972 89% 29k $1.2M (exactly $1,166,108) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Atelier Lulua ~The Scion of Arland~ older $59.99 528 88% 16k $950k (exactly $950,242) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Atelier Rorona ~The Alchemist of Arland~ DX older $39.99 727 91% 22k $872k (exactly $872,182) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Atelier Ayesha: The Alchemist of Dusk DX older $39.99 519 92% 16k $623k (exactly $622,644) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Atelier Firis: The Alchemist and the Mysterious Journey DX older $39.99 471 73% 14k $565k (exactly $565,059) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Atelier Lydie & Suelle: The Alchemists and the Mysterious Paintings DX older $39.99 408 91% 12k $489k (exactly $489,478) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Atelier Ryza: Ever Darkness & the Secret Hideout DX $39.99 257 76% 7.7k $308k (exactly $308,323) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Atelier Ryza 2: Lost Legends & the Secret Fairy DX $39.99 110 85% 3.3k $132k (exactly $131,967) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Atelier Ryza 3: Alchemist of the End & the Secret Key DX $39.99 102 80% 3.1k $122k (exactly $122,369) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Placid Plastic Deck - A Quiet Quest $12.99 208 80% 6.2k $81k (exactly $81,058) turbolento games, Fantastico Studio
Tomomon $14.99 126 70% 3.8k $57k (exactly $56,662) ManicBuild Studio
戦国英雄譚-Samurai Heroes- $9.99 47 89% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,086) hizaniya games
Silver Daze $14.99 14 100% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) Sawyer Friend
Marble Heartstrings $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) 整个好活
21: Dead Man's Deck · EA $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Downdog2519

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.