Do I ship it?

GamesTrading Card GameTrading Card Game + Turn-Based Tactics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Tactics Trading Card Game?

Trading Card Game + Turn-Based Tactics

Of 78 developers who shipped a paid Turn-Based Tactics Trading Card Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 183 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $85k, ×136 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 183 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 183 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Trading Card Game + Turn-Based Tactics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 78
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.5k → $3.4k → $1.1k → $2.3k → $598 → $450 → $269 (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Trading Card Game + Turn-Based Tactics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 78
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $450 (exactly $450)
Top 25% $4.3k (exactly $4,316)
Top 5% $85k (exactly $85,472)
Developers, 2 yr 78
Released games 264
Announced 183
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 44%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Trading Card Game
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Trading Card Game, Turn-Based Tactics; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Card Battler, Card Game
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 3,929 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $450, 1 in 4 over $4.3k, 1 in 20 over $85k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 50 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 183 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Trading Card Game with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  2. + SandboxFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  3. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $1.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Procedural GenerationPoor odds10 devs · median $10k · 26 announced
  5. + TradingPoor odds16 devs · median $10k · 36 announced
  6. + Life SimPoor odds18 devs · median $10k · 21 announced
  7. + CollectathonPoor odds26 devs · median $6.3k · 41 announced
  8. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $6.1k · 25 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds11 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  10. + Auto BattlerPoor odds22 devs · median $3.4k · 27 announced
  11. + Roguelike DeckbuilderPoor odds24 devs · median $3.4k · 38 announced
  12. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $3.1k · 36 announced

All 69 pairs on the Trading Card Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dream of Corpse Lady $9.99 2,115 93% 63k $634k (exactly $633,866) HT3 Studio
Nowhere Prophet older $24.99 721 77% 22k $541k (exactly $540,534) Sharkbomb Studios
Rento Fortune: Online Dice Board Game (大富翁) older $4.99 3,063 50% 92k $459k (exactly $458,531) LAN - GAMES LTD
Rogue Voltage $15.99 593 92% 18k $284k (exactly $284,462) Horizont Computergrafik
Erannorth Chronicles older $20.99 407 85% 12k $256k (exactly $256,288) Spyridon Thalassinos
Cardaclysm older $14.99 425 64% 13k $191k (exactly $191,122) Elder Games
Variables 2 older $14.99 418 90% 13k $188k (exactly $187,975) Asteroid Game Studio
Kādomon: Hyper Auto Battlers $9.99 543 65% 16k $163k (exactly $162,737) Dino Rocket
Zero Division older $12.99 271 87% 8.1k $106k (exactly $105,609) Robot Cat Limited
Culdcept The First $29.99 95 74% 2.9k $85k (exactly $85,472) CITY CONNECTION
Water Margin Scrolls $9.99 244 40% 7.3k $73k (exactly $73,127) QingHe Games
Isle of Swaps $14.99 129 90% 3.9k $58k (exactly $58,011) Fuzz Force
Islets Defense $9.99 129 94% 3.9k $39k (exactly $38,661) MiniGoof
Card Summoner $14.99 32 50% 960 $14k (exactly $14,390) Happenstance Games
Areteion $19.99 17 94% 510 $10k (exactly $10,195) juxtapositioned
Musicmenia $9.99 32 90% 960 $9.6k (exactly $9,590) Symphonic Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.