Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Trading Card Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Trading Card Game Sandbox?

Sandbox + Trading Card Game

Only 17 developers shipped a Trading Card Game Sandbox in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, TCG Card Shop Simulator, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 17 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $720. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 17 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 17 announced, ×1.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Trading Card Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.9k → $30k (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Trading Card Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Top 25% $30k (exactly $30,010)
Top 5% $28M (exactly $28,399,993)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 33
Announced 17
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 140% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Trading Card Game
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Trading Card Game; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Collectathon, Economy
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 49,721 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $30k, 1 in 20 over $28M.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 17 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced
  12. + IncrementalFair196 devs · median $748 · 248 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
TCG Card Shop Simulator $19.99 47,357 96% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,399,993) OPNeon Games
Tabletop Simulator older $19.99 46,875 95% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,110,937) Berserk Games
Out of the Park Baseball 27 $49.99 475 82% 14k $712k (exactly $712,358) Out of the Park Developments
Doodle God older $14.99 1,030 77% 31k $463k (exactly $463,191) JoyBits Ltd.
My Wife Threw Out My Card Collection (So I Bought a Dump to Find Them All) ⭐ $7.95 1,601 65% 48k $382k (exactly $381,838) Polnoch
Erannorth Chronicles older $20.99 407 85% 12k $256k (exactly $256,288) Spyridon Thalassinos
Tabletop Playground · EA older $14.99 121 79% 3.6k $54k (exactly $54,414) Plasticity Studios
Doodle Kingdom older $8.99 129 45% 3.9k $35k (exactly $34,791) JoyBits Ltd.
Table Battle Simulator · EA $12.99 85 74% 2.6k $33k (exactly $33,124) Kiki Games
FeeBay Simulator $5.99 167 91% 5.0k $30k (exactly $30,010) Lake Country Games
Idle Colors $7.99 10 30% 300 $2.4k (exactly $2,397) Like Idle Games
Idle Pixels $7.99 8 0% 240 $1.9k (exactly $1,918) Pixel Labs
The Ultimate Collector · EA $8.99 7 42% 210 $1.9k (exactly $1,888) StariStudios
AI PAINTER: Painting Simulator $19.99 3 66% 90 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) Magic Cat
Idle Income $5.99 8 37% 240 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) Trinket Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.