Do I ship it?

GamesTrading Card GameTrading Card Game + Life Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Life Sim Trading Card Game?

Trading Card Game + Life Sim

Only 18 developers shipped a Life Sim Trading Card Game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, TCG Card Shop Simulator, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $10k, ×16 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $28M, ×45223 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 21 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 16.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 21 announced, ×1.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Trading Card Game + Life Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Trading Card Game + Life Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $2.7k (exactly $2,695)
Median $10k (exactly $10,190)
Top 25% $265k (exactly $264,873)
Top 5% $28M (exactly $28,399,993)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 27
Announced 21
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 275% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Trading Card Game
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Life Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Trading Card Game, Life Sim; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Card Game, Collectathon
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 52,190 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.7k, median $10k, 1 in 4 over $260k, 1 in 20 over $28M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.7k. 5 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Trading Card Game with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  2. + SandboxFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  3. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $1.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Procedural GenerationPoor odds10 devs · median $10k · 26 announced
  5. + TradingPoor odds16 devs · median $10k · 36 announced
  6. + CollectathonPoor odds26 devs · median $6.3k · 41 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $6.1k · 25 announced
  8. + Co-opPoor odds11 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerPoor odds22 devs · median $3.4k · 27 announced
  10. + Roguelike DeckbuilderPoor odds24 devs · median $3.4k · 38 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $3.1k · 36 announced
  12. + EconomyPoor odds25 devs · median $2.4k · 39 announced

All 69 pairs on the Trading Card Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
TCG Card Shop Simulator $19.99 47,357 96% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,399,993) OPNeon Games
Supercar Collection Simulator $12.99 1,528 85% 46k $595k (exactly $595,462) Kiki Games
Card Shop Simulator Multiplayer $11.99 1,609 82% 48k $579k (exactly $578,757) ShaneGame
Youtubers Life 3 $19.99 468 50% 14k $281k (exactly $280,660) UPLAY Online
Anime Shop Simulator ✨ $14.99 589 73% 18k $265k (exactly $264,873) One More Time
Fishing Adventure older $4.99 1,479 85% 44k $221k (exactly $221,406) MasterCode
TCG Multiplayer Card Shop Simulator · EA $12.99 198 54% 5.9k $77k (exactly $77,161) Alkame Games
Sports Card Shop Simulator · EA $12.99 155 92% 4.7k $60k (exactly $60,404) OverPowered Team
Table Battle Simulator · EA $12.99 85 74% 2.6k $33k (exactly $33,124) Kiki Games
FeeBay Simulator $5.99 167 91% 5.0k $30k (exactly $30,010) Lake Country Games
Monstrix TCG Card Shop $9.99 34 55% 1.0k $10k (exactly $10,190) Revolt Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.