Do I ship it?

GamesTrading Card GameTrading Card Game + Roguelike Deckbuilder

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelike Deckbuilder Trading Card Game?

Trading Card Game + Roguelike Deckbuilder

Of 24 developers who shipped a Roguelike Deckbuilder Trading Card Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 38 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.4k, ×5.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $280k, ×453 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 38 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 38 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Trading Card Game + Roguelike Deckbuilder
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $82k → $261k → $58k → $5.4k → $14k → $9.4k (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Trading Card Game + Roguelike Deckbuilder: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Median $3.4k (exactly $3,420)
Top 25% $34k (exactly $34,177)
Top 5% $284k (exactly $284,462)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 47
Announced 38
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Trading Card Game
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Roguelike Deckbuilder
effort 3 / 10 · high · deckbuilding rules plus procedural runs

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Trading Card Game, Roguelike Deckbuilder; all of the top 25% also carry Card Battler, Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 3,415 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $3.4k, 1 in 4 over $34k, 1 in 20 over $280k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 7 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 38 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Trading Card Game with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  2. + SandboxFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  3. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $1.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Procedural GenerationPoor odds10 devs · median $10k · 26 announced
  5. + TradingPoor odds16 devs · median $10k · 36 announced
  6. + Life SimPoor odds18 devs · median $10k · 21 announced
  7. + CollectathonPoor odds26 devs · median $6.3k · 41 announced
  8. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $6.1k · 25 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds11 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  10. + Auto BattlerPoor odds22 devs · median $3.4k · 27 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $3.1k · 36 announced
  12. + EconomyPoor odds25 devs · median $2.4k · 39 announced

All 69 pairs on the Trading Card Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dream of Corpse Lady $9.99 2,115 93% 63k $634k (exactly $633,866) HT3 Studio
RUNGORE older $14.99 991 85% 30k $446k (exactly $445,653) YOUR_MOM'S_HP, RavenJm
Rogue Voltage $15.99 593 92% 18k $284k (exactly $284,462) Horizont Computergrafik
Ruff Ghanor older $19.99 435 85% 13k $261k (exactly $260,869) DX Gameworks
Zero Division older $12.99 271 87% 8.1k $106k (exactly $105,609) Robot Cat Limited
Power Chord older $19.99 170 71% 5.1k $102k (exactly $101,949) Big Blue Bubble
Witch and Council : The Card $14.99 182 48% 5.5k $82k (exactly $81,845) G1 Playground
Helmetman · EA older $19.99 136 79% 4.1k $82k (exactly $81,559) GoniNmimi Games
Is It Wrong to Repay the Debt in a Dungeon? older $17.99 118 79% 3.5k $64k (exactly $63,685) Atelier Wanko
Coin Crypt older $9.99 212 91% 6.4k $64k (exactly $63,536) Wishes Ultd., Greg Lobanov
Isle of Swaps $14.99 129 90% 3.9k $58k (exactly $58,011) Fuzz Force
Stash: A Card Looter $9.99 186 79% 5.6k $56k (exactly $55,744) WheeGaming
Handmancers · EA $14.99 76 88% 2.3k $34k (exactly $34,177) 58BLADES
Monster Tavern · EA $11.99 46 100% 1.4k $17k (exactly $16,546) Toki Games LLC
Card Artisan $12.99 36 91% 1.1k $14k (exactly $14,029) Fullen Games
Millennium Strategy $14.99 21 85% 630 $9.4k (exactly $9,444) MiMo Games
Card of Legend $6.99 31 54% 930 $6.5k (exactly $6,501) Anchor Node

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.