Do I ship it?

GamesTrading Card GameTrading Card Game + Turn-Based Combat

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Combat Trading Card Game?

Trading Card Game + Turn-Based Combat

Of 55 developers who shipped a paid Turn-Based Combat Trading Card Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 149 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $81k, ×130 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 149 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 149 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Trading Card Game + Turn-Based Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 55
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.5k → $4.9k → $3.8k → $5.1k → $955 → $599 → $300 (still earning) → $210 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Trading Card Game + Turn-Based Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 55
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $6.1k (exactly $6,110)
Top 5% $82k (exactly $81,845)
Developers, 2 yr 55
Released games 179
Announced 149
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 42%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Trading Card Game
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Trading Card Game, Turn-Based Combat; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Card Game, Deckbuilding
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 3,788 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $600, 1 in 4 over $6.1k, 1 in 20 over $81k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 7 in 10 of the 29 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 149 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Trading Card Game with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  2. + SandboxFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  3. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $1.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Procedural GenerationPoor odds10 devs · median $10k · 26 announced
  5. + TradingPoor odds16 devs · median $10k · 36 announced
  6. + Life SimPoor odds18 devs · median $10k · 21 announced
  7. + CollectathonPoor odds26 devs · median $6.3k · 41 announced
  8. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $6.1k · 25 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds11 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  10. + Auto BattlerPoor odds22 devs · median $3.4k · 27 announced
  11. + Roguelike DeckbuilderPoor odds24 devs · median $3.4k · 38 announced
  12. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $3.1k · 36 announced

All 69 pairs on the Trading Card Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dream of Corpse Lady $9.99 2,115 93% 63k $634k (exactly $633,866) HT3 Studio
Nowhere Prophet older $24.99 721 77% 22k $541k (exactly $540,534) Sharkbomb Studios
Danganronpa S: Ultimate Summer Camp older $19.99 761 62% 23k $456k (exactly $456,372) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Arcanium: Rise of Akhan older $19.99 670 81% 20k $402k (exactly $401,799) Supercombo, Inc.
Heroes Wanted older $19.99 533 81% 16k $320k (exactly $319,640) Gameplete
Rogue Voltage $15.99 593 92% 18k $284k (exactly $284,462) Horizont Computergrafik
Ruff Ghanor older $19.99 435 85% 13k $261k (exactly $260,869) DX Gameworks
Erannorth Chronicles older $20.99 407 85% 12k $256k (exactly $256,288) Spyridon Thalassinos
Variables 2 older $14.99 418 90% 13k $188k (exactly $187,975) Asteroid Game Studio
System Crash older $14.99 250 83% 7.5k $112k (exactly $112,425) Rogue Moon Studios
Witch and Council : The Card $14.99 182 48% 5.5k $82k (exactly $81,845) G1 Playground
Fuckstone $11.99 217 88% 6.5k $78k (exactly $78,055) Anime Mania
Water Margin Scrolls $9.99 244 40% 7.3k $73k (exactly $73,127) QingHe Games
Isle of Swaps $14.99 129 90% 3.9k $58k (exactly $58,011) Fuzz Force
修仙•母珠传 Pig Training Legend $7.99 192 72% 5.8k $46k (exactly $46,022) MouseKKK
Fairtravel Battle CCG · EA $14.99 52 98% 1.6k $23k (exactly $23,384) Flaming Torch Games
Monster Tavern · EA $11.99 46 100% 1.4k $17k (exactly $16,546) Toki Games LLC
Ariokan™ - create your cards, break the Meta $29.99 18 94% 540 $16k (exactly $16,195) Fatum Games SL

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.