Do I ship it?

Games › Crafting › Crafting + Top-Down Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Top-Down Shooter?

Crafting + Top-Down Shooter

Of 45 developers who shipped a Crafting Top-Down Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 125 more are announced, ×6.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×5.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $510k, ×827 the market median. Revenue is up 105% on the market; 125 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 105% on the market, 125 announced, ×6.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Top-Down Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 45
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $9.5k → $1.6k → $3.9k → $3.1k → $2.3k → $3.6k (still earning) → $15k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Top-Down Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 45
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,148)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $14,748)
Top 5% $519k (exactly $519,080)
Developers, 2 yr 45
Released games 122
Announced 125
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 105% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting, Top-Down Shooter; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Roguelike
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 31,271 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $510k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 8 in 10 of the 29 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 125 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Foxhole 2022 · $43M BALL x PIT 2025 · $11M The Last Stand: Aftermath 2021 · $4.6M How to Survive 2 2016 · $3.9M Star Valor 2022 · $2.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Foxhole older $29.99 47,330 79% 1.4M $43M (exactly $42,582,801) Siege Camp
BALL x PIT $14.99 24,714 95% 741k $11M (exactly $11,113,886) Kenny Sun and Friends
The Last Stand: Aftermath older $24.99 6,096 80% 183k $4.6M (exactly $4,570,171) Con Artist Games
How to Survive 2 older $14.99 8,641 69% 259k $3.9M (exactly $3,885,858) Eko Software
Star Valor older $24.99 3,272 88% 98k $2.5M (exactly $2,453,018) Rafael Burgos
Wizard with a Gun older $24.99 2,932 80% 88k $2.2M (exactly $2,198,120) Galvanic Games
Black Skylands older $19.99 2,849 82% 85k $1.7M (exactly $1,708,545) Hungry Couch Games
Tunguska: The Visitation - Final Cut older $14.99 1,682 87% 50k $756k (exactly $756,395) Rotorist Workshop
TerraTech Legion $9.99 2,109 81% 63k $632k (exactly $632,067) Payload Studios
Grind Survivors $12.99 1,332 69% 40k $519k (exactly $519,080) Pushka Studios
Reality Break $24.99 683 80% 20k $512k (exactly $512,045) Element Games, LLC
Dinotica $17.99 746 86% 22k $403k (exactly $402,616) XA Studio
Castle Of Alchemists $14.99 618 80% 19k $278k (exactly $277,915) Team Machiavelli
Crafty Survivors $11.99 712 83% 21k $256k (exactly $256,106) Flannel Bear Games
Dino Path Trail $14.99 197 76% 5.9k $89k (exactly $88,591) Void Pointer
Warspace 2 $17.99 83 59% 2.5k $45k (exactly $44,795) Magic Game Art
Try to survive Today · EA $10.99 77 68% 2.3k $25k (exactly $25,387) VIVA

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.