Do I ship it?

GamesTop-Down ShooterTop-Down Shooter + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian Top-Down Shooter?

Top-Down Shooter + Dystopian

Of 24 developers who shipped a Dystopian Top-Down Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 92 more are announced, ×7.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×6.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $320k, ×688 the market median. Revenue is up 145% on the market; 92 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 145% on the market, 92 announced, ×7.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Top-Down Shooter + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.9k → $130k → $716 → $5.0k → $1.2k → $239 → $1.8k (still earning) → $4.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Top-Down Shooter + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,148)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,393)
Top 5% $327k (exactly $326,958)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 81
Announced 92
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 145% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Top-Down Shooter; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Action-Adventure
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 3D, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 1,896 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $320k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 92 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Top-Down Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + VampiresFair16 devs · median $3.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Turn-Based StrategyFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  3. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 15 announced
  4. + IdlerFair24 devs · median $748 · 30 announced
  5. + ArcheryFair9 devs · median $359 · 11 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds12 devs · median $6.5k · 28 announced
  7. + Tactical RPGPoor odds12 devs · median $5.5k · 16 announced
  8. + Action RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + HistoricalPoor odds18 devs · median $3.3k · 24 announced
  10. + ModernPoor odds13 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  11. + CraftingPoor odds45 devs · median $3.1k · 125 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds135 devs · median $3.1k · 207 announced

All 150 pairs on the Top-Down Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Ascent older $29.99 19,235 74% 577k $17M (exactly $17,305,730) Neon Giant
RUINER older $19.99 10,338 89% 310k $6.2M (exactly $6,199,699) Reikon Games
Brigador: Up-Armored Edition older $24.99 4,580 93% 137k $3.4M (exactly $3,433,626) Stellar Jockeys, Gausswerks
Cavalry Girls older $11.99 1,877 88% 56k $675k (exactly $675,157) 中子星游戏研究所
Brigador Killers · EA $24.99 572 69% 17k $429k (exactly $428,828) Stellar Jockeys, Gausswerks
Deadeye Deepfake Simulacrum $12.99 839 98% 25k $327k (exactly $326,958) nodayshalleraseyou
Neon Chrome older $14.99 545 93% 16k $245k (exactly $245,086) 10tons Ltd
Tower 57 older $11.99 538 65% 16k $194k (exactly $193,519) Pixwerk
Mega City Force older $14.99 289 76% 8.7k $130k (exactly $129,963) Undreamed Games
PROHIBEAST $34.99 121 57% 3.6k $127k (exactly $127,014) SUPER AC
Glitchpunk $19.99 174 47% 5.2k $104k (exactly $104,348) Dark Lord
Shell Runner $14.99 80 57% 2.4k $36k (exactly $35,976) Reija
HoverGrease 2 $19.99 24 83% 720 $14k (exactly $14,393) Altergaze
Sand: A Superfluous Game $9.99 24 83% 720 $7.2k (exactly $7,193) Voided Pixels Studio
∀stralbringer -Shaded Arkarium- $8.99 25 72% 750 $6.7k (exactly $6,742) Endless Shirafu
Die for the Economy! $7.99 21 100% 630 $5.0k (exactly $5,034) Tea Monster Games
System Breakdown $8.99 16 100% 480 $4.3k (exactly $4,315) Anarchy Creations

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.