Do I ship it?

GamesTop-Down ShooterTop-Down Shooter + Lovecraftian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Lovecraftian Top-Down Shooter?

Top-Down Shooter + Lovecraftian

Only 12 developers shipped a Lovecraftian Top-Down Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Whisper Mountain Outbreak, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.5k, ×14 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $580k, ×1222 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 28 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.6 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 28 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Top-Down Shooter + Lovecraftian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $899 → $8.1k → $1.5k → $1.3k (still earning) → $20k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Top-Down Shooter + Lovecraftian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,258)
Median $6.5k (exactly $6,473)
Top 25% $32k (exactly $31,566)
Top 5% $580k (exactly $580,314)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 38
Announced 28
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Lovecraftian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Top-Down Shooter
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 3,196 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.3k, median $6.5k, 1 in 4 over $31k, 1 in 20 over $580k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.3k. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Top-Down Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + VampiresFair16 devs · median $3.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Turn-Based StrategyFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  3. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 15 announced
  4. + IdlerFair24 devs · median $748 · 30 announced
  5. + ArcheryFair9 devs · median $359 · 11 announced
  6. + Tactical RPGPoor odds12 devs · median $5.5k · 16 announced
  7. + Action RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  8. + HistoricalPoor odds18 devs · median $3.3k · 24 announced
  9. + ModernPoor odds13 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  10. + CraftingPoor odds45 devs · median $3.1k · 125 announced
  11. + DystopianPoor odds24 devs · median $3.1k · 92 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds135 devs · median $3.1k · 207 announced

All 150 pairs on the Top-Down Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
20 Minutes Till Dawn older $4.99 27,872 90% 836k $4.2M (exactly $4,172,438) flanne
HellSign older $19.99 2,147 67% 64k $1.3M (exactly $1,287,556) Ballistic Interactive
Endoparasitic older $9.99 2,928 93% 88k $878k (exactly $877,522) Miziziziz
Whisper Mountain Outbreak · EA $7.99 2,421 84% 73k $580k (exactly $580,314) Toge Productions
Tesla vs Lovecraft older $14.99 851 89% 26k $383k (exactly $382,695) 10tons Ltd
Sea of Survivors · EA older $6.99 415 81% 12k $87k (exactly $87,026) Nah Yeah Games
Tesla Force older $16.99 148 77% 4.4k $75k (exactly $75,436) 10tons Ltd
Dark Fairy Tale: Dreamland Survivors $4.99 479 90% 14k $72k (exactly $71,706) BINGOBELL
Game of Rebirth $12.99 81 69% 2.4k $32k (exactly $31,566) ZodiacStudio
Skautfold: Into the Fray older $9.99 85 89% 2.6k $25k (exactly $25,474) Steve Gal
Cthulhu's Reach: Devil Reef $9.99 68 80% 2.0k $20k (exactly $20,380) The Fine Arc
When the Light Dies $4.99 80 71% 2.4k $12k (exactly $11,976) Electric Monkeys, Secret Level Studios
Misty Land $8.99 24 79% 720 $6.5k (exactly $6,473) Branches Games
Dice Gun Commando $4.99 20 100% 600 $3.0k (exactly $2,994) Loonicy Entertainment
Rip & Tear $4.90 10 70% 300 $1.5k (exactly $1,470) CJ
Demon Knives $6.99 6 66% 180 $1.3k (exactly $1,258) Thomas Randall, Charlie Malmqvist
Kuentame $5.99 7 100% 210 $1.3k (exactly $1,258) ApeHardware

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.