Do I ship it?

GamesTop-Down ShooterTop-Down Shooter + Traditional Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Traditional Roguelike Top-Down Shooter?

Top-Down Shooter + Traditional Roguelike

Only 17 developers shipped a Traditional Roguelike Top-Down Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Girl Frame, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $120 in the last 2 years and $120 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 12 developers shipped in the last year and 15 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 15 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Top-Down Shooter + Traditional Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $119 → $119 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Top-Down Shooter + Traditional Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $119 (exactly $119)
Top 25% $537 (exactly $537)
Top 5% $31k (exactly $31,029)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 27
Announced 15
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 140% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Traditional Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Top-Down Shooter, Traditional Roguelike; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Bullet Hell, Roguelike, RPG
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D, Stylized
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 9 games average 80% positive over 211 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $120, 1 in 4 over $530, 1 in 20 over $31k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Top-Down Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + VampiresFair16 devs · median $3.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Turn-Based StrategyFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  3. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 15 announced
  4. + IdlerFair24 devs · median $748 · 30 announced
  5. + ArcheryFair9 devs · median $359 · 11 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds12 devs · median $6.5k · 28 announced
  7. + Tactical RPGPoor odds12 devs · median $5.5k · 16 announced
  8. + Action RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + HistoricalPoor odds18 devs · median $3.3k · 24 announced
  10. + ModernPoor odds13 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  11. + CraftingPoor odds45 devs · median $3.1k · 125 announced
  12. + DystopianPoor odds24 devs · median $3.1k · 92 announced

All 150 pairs on the Top-Down Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Girl Frame $14.99 69 68% 2.1k $31k (exactly $31,029) Meow Run, Cat Shine
Book Shooter $6.99 107 86% 3.2k $22k (exactly $22,438) SOS GameLab.
Spaceship Simulator older $6.99 23 78% 690 $4.8k (exactly $4,823) chenjd
Chronos Trap in Time $12.99 11 100% 330 $4.3k (exactly $4,287) SCS Ogonvard AB
Hero of Not Our Time older $0.99 124 70% 3.7k $3.7k (exactly $3,683) Hide Head
多比大冒险(Doobi's Adventure) · EA older $2.99 25 64% 750 $2.2k (exactly $2,242) RainySquare Games
Cosmos older $1.99 12 83% 360 $716 (exactly $716) Jacwab
诡仙志异 · EA older $1.99 11 63% 330 $657 (exactly $657) 诡道
CORRUPT.EXE · EA $4.99 4 75% 120 $599 (exactly $599) FORGE GAMES
一剑江湖 $1.99 9 44% 270 $537 (exactly $537) 春秋大梦工作室
Mech Survivor Elite $2.99 3 100% 90 $269 (exactly $269) Viktor Borg Grelsson
No Sweet Looks $2.99 2 100% 60 $179 (exactly $179) halvardo13
Field of Enemies · EA $1.99 2 100% 60 $119 (exactly $119) Dexied Games
Lunaris $0.99 4 100% 120 $119 (exactly $119) Flacher
Cursor Blast $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) NRZGAMES

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.