Do I ship it?

GamesTrading Card GameTrading Card Game + Tabletop

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tabletop Trading Card Game?

Trading Card Game + Tabletop

Of 62 developers who shipped a Tabletop Trading Card Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 95 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 37 developers shipped in the last year and 95 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 95 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Trading Card Game + Tabletop
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 62
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $418 → $1.2k → $598 → $299 → $475 (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Trading Card Game + Tabletop: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 62
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $450 (exactly $450)
Top 25% $3.5k (exactly $3,507)
Top 5% $33k (exactly $33,124)
Developers, 2 yr 62
Released games 182
Announced 95
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 27%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Trading Card Game
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Trading Card Game, Tabletop; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Card Game, Strategy, Card Battler
Price point
$7.00 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.00.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 2,133 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $450, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $33k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 8 in 10 of the 31 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 95 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Trading Card Game with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  2. + SandboxFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  3. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $1.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Procedural GenerationPoor odds10 devs · median $10k · 26 announced
  5. + TradingPoor odds16 devs · median $10k · 36 announced
  6. + Life SimPoor odds18 devs · median $10k · 21 announced
  7. + CollectathonPoor odds26 devs · median $6.3k · 41 announced
  8. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $6.1k · 25 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds11 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  10. + Auto BattlerPoor odds22 devs · median $3.4k · 27 announced
  11. + Roguelike DeckbuilderPoor odds24 devs · median $3.4k · 38 announced
  12. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $3.1k · 36 announced

All 69 pairs on the Trading Card Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tabletop Simulator older $19.99 46,875 95% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,110,937) Berserk Games
Card Shop Simulator Multiplayer $11.99 1,609 82% 48k $579k (exactly $578,757) ShaneGame
Nowhere Prophet older $24.99 721 77% 22k $541k (exactly $540,534) Sharkbomb Studios
Doodle God older $14.99 1,030 77% 31k $463k (exactly $463,191) JoyBits Ltd.
Rento Fortune: Online Dice Board Game (大富翁) older $4.99 3,063 50% 92k $459k (exactly $458,531) LAN - GAMES LTD
Ascension: Deckbuilding Game older $9.99 1,435 88% 43k $430k (exactly $430,070) Playdek, Inc.
Heroes Wanted older $19.99 533 81% 16k $320k (exactly $319,640) Gameplete
Aeon's End older $14.99 438 82% 13k $197k (exactly $196,969) Handelabra Games Inc.
Cardpocalypse older $24.99 192 88% 5.8k $144k (exactly $143,942) Gambrinous
System Crash older $14.99 250 83% 7.5k $112k (exactly $112,425) Rogue Moon Studios
Culdcept The First $29.99 95 74% 2.9k $85k (exactly $85,472) CITY CONNECTION
Isle of Swaps $14.99 129 90% 3.9k $58k (exactly $58,011) Fuzz Force
Table Battle Simulator · EA $12.99 85 74% 2.6k $33k (exactly $33,124) Kiki Games
It's time, Your Majesty $6.99 77 64% 2.3k $16k (exactly $16,147) String studio
Card Summoner $14.99 32 50% 960 $14k (exactly $14,390) Happenstance Games
Areteion $19.99 17 94% 510 $10k (exactly $10,195) juxtapositioned
Musicmenia $9.99 32 90% 960 $9.6k (exactly $9,590) Symphonic Games
Truco Argentino $5.99 46 95% 1.4k $8.3k (exactly $8,266) Agustin Rambaldo
Wild Country $24.99 11 54% 330 $8.2k (exactly $8,247) Lost Native

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.