Do I ship it?

Games › JRPG › JRPG + Swordplay

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Swordplay JRPG?

JRPG + Swordplay

Only 16 developers shipped a Swordplay JRPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Like a Dragon: Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $14k, ×22 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $11M, ×18868 the market median. Revenue is up 1605% on the market; 22 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 22.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 1605% on the market, 22 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Swordplay
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.5k → $38k → $2.2k → $12M → $22k
Outcomes for JRPG + Swordplay: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $1.7k (exactly $1,679)
Median $14k (exactly $13,793)
Top 25% $93k (exactly $92,954)
Top 5% $12M (exactly $11,849,225)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 52
Announced 22
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1605% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG, Swordplay; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Character Customization, RPG
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Anime, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 11,317 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.7k, median $14k, 1 in 4 over $92k, 1 in 20 over $11M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.7k. 5 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 22 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Granblue Fantasy: Relink 2024 · $49M ASTLIBRA Revision 2022 · $23M Like a Dragon: Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii 2025 · $12M SWORD ART ONLINE Fractured Daydream 2024 · $3.6M SWORD ART ONLINE Alicization Lycoris 2020 · $3.0M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Granblue Fantasy: Relink older $39.99 41,227 89% 1.2M $49M (exactly $49,460,032) Cygames, Inc.
ASTLIBRA Revision older $24.99 30,262 95% 908k $23M (exactly $22,687,421) KEIZO
Like a Dragon: Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii $59.99 6,584 88% 198k $12M (exactly $11,849,225) RGG Studio
SWORD ART ONLINE Fractured Daydream $59.99 2,021 64% 61k $3.6M (exactly $3,637,194) Dimps Corporation
SWORD ART ONLINE Alicization Lycoris older $19.99 5,017 61% 151k $3.0M (exactly $3,008,695) AQURIA Co., Ltd.
Way of the Samurai 4 older $24.99 1,939 76% 58k $1.5M (exactly $1,453,668) ACQUIRE Corp.
Monochrome Mobius: Rights and Wrongs Forgotten older $59.99 759 80% 23k $1.4M (exactly $1,365,972) AQUAPLUS
SAMURAI MAIDEN older $59.99 648 60% 19k $1.2M (exactly $1,166,206) SHADE Inc.
Virtua Fighter 5 R.E.V.O. World Stage $19.99 1,897 71% 57k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,631) RGG Studio
SWORD ART ONLINE Last Recollection older $59.99 450 58% 14k $810k (exactly $809,865) AQURIA Co., Ltd.
Utawarerumono: Past and Present Rediscovered $59.99 289 83% 8.7k $520k (exactly $520,113) AQUAPLUS
Shrine's Legacy $19.99 155 82% 4.7k $93k (exactly $92,954) Positive Concept Games
DragonStone Revenge $14.99 146 60% 4.4k $66k (exactly $65,656) Entropy Digital Entertainment
AQUAPAZZA: Aquaplus Dream Match $19.99 104 33% 3.1k $62k (exactly $62,369) AQUAPLUS
Dungeon Mori $11.99 60 93% 1.8k $22k (exactly $21,582) FilthyDrawings, Updog Software
Sword Mistress of the Dungeon Town $17.99 38 65% 1.1k $21k (exactly $20,509) ラブリープリチー超愛してる, Lovely Pretty Ultra Lov… (ラブリープリチー超愛してる, Lovely Pretty Ultra Loving You)
Superstar Strategy $19.99 23 95% 690 $14k (exactly $13,793) Talberon Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.