Do I ship it?

GamesSwordplaySwordplay + Idler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Idler Swordplay game?

Swordplay + Idler

Only 9 developers shipped an Idler Swordplay game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Re:Blade, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $630. Revenue is flat on the market; 4 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.3 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 4 announced, ×0.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Swordplay + Idler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Swordplay + Idler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $624 (exactly $624)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,703)
Top 25% $5.7k (exactly $5,664)
Top 5% $20k (exactly $20,229)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 25
Announced 4
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Swordplay, Idler
Price point
$3.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 65% positive over 1,456 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $5.6k, 1 in 20 over $20k.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 4 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Swordplay with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Strategy RPGFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Auto BattlerFair13 devs · median $1.1k · 8 announced
  4. + DeckbuildingFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  5. + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  6. + SamuraiPoor odds12 devs · median $80k · 21 announced
  7. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 22 announced
  8. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds39 devs · median $13k · 79 announced
  9. + FightingPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $12k · 53 announced
  11. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 26 announced
  12. + Open WorldPoor odds40 devs · median $7.5k · 117 announced

All 115 pairs on the Swordplay page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
XiuzhenWorld older $12.99 436 75% 13k $170k (exactly $169,909) Noforgetit
CYBRID · EA older $14.99 139 89% 4.2k $63k (exactly $62,508) Tom Reason
最后的仙门 The last Practice Sect older $3.99 504 53% 15k $60k (exactly $60,329) 栖鸾工作室
Re:Blade $3.99 169 71% 5.1k $20k (exactly $20,229) STAGE Games
鸿运修仙传 $5.99 34 76% 1.0k $6.1k (exactly $6,110) 玉米工作室
Trap for the Heir $8.99 21 90% 630 $5.7k (exactly $5,664) MariLuzaria
SideQuest Hunters $4.99 35 71% 1.1k $5.2k (exactly $5,240) Paparajote Games
XiuXian Idle Cultivation $0.99 91 21% 2.7k $2.7k (exactly $2,703) 浪屿峻造
Space Roguelike Adventure older $4.99 17 76% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) Anti-Pattern Studio
Isekai Idle $2.99 10 40% 300 $897 (exactly $897) Koarkgames
天门问剑 $0.99 21 76% 630 $624 (exactly $624) FunPlaceGame
Mortal Cultivation $1.99 6 66% 180 $358 (exactly $358) 欲求仙
Path of Clicks $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) FANE Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.