Do I ship it?

GamesCo-opCo-op + Swordplay

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Co-op Swordplay game?

Co-op + Swordplay

Only 19 developers shipped a Co-op Swordplay game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Rise of the Ronin, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 53 more are announced, ×7.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $12k, ×8.1 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $9.7M, ×6510 the market median. Revenue is up 755% on the market; 53 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 755% on the market, 53 announced, ×7.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Co-op + Swordplay
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.1k → $25k → $227k → $12k → $8.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Co-op + Swordplay: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Median $12k (exactly $12,081)
Top 25% $93k (exactly $92,954)
Top 5% $9.8M (exactly $9,752,549)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 65
Announced 53
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 755% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Co-op
effort 7 / 10 · low · co-op on Steam means online sessions and drop-in sync
Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Co-op, Swordplay; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Online Co-Op, Action, Action RPG
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 67% positive over 10,094 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $12k, 1 in 4 over $92k, 1 in 20 over $9.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 7 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 53 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Co-op with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SuperheroFair9 devs · median $11k · 17 announced
  2. + Boomer ShooterFair16 devs · median $6.9k · 24 announced
  3. + GamblingFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 32 announced
  4. + NinjaFair13 devs · median $4.2k · 13 announced
  5. + TypingLong shot16 devs · median $810 · 13 announced
  6. + Word GameLong shot23 devs · median $267 · 23 announced
  7. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds12 devs · median $372k · 23 announced
  9. + AutomationPoor odds48 devs · median $369k · 110 announced
  10. + TransportationPoor odds17 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds15 devs · median $164k · 19 announced
  12. + Turn-BasedPoor odds12 devs · median $131k · 19 announced

All 230 pairs on the Co-op page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition older $39.99 322,072 88% 9.7M $386M (exactly $386,389,778) Rare Ltd
FOR HONOR™ older $29.99 108,492 69% 3.3M $98M (exactly $97,610,252) Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Toronto, Blue Byte)
Chivalry: Medieval Warfare older $24.99 44,486 83% 1.3M $33M (exactly $33,351,154) Torn Banner Studios
Shadow Warrior 2 older $29.99 24,120 87% 724k $22M (exactly $21,700,764) Flying Wild Hog
Clone Drone in the Danger Zone older $19.99 36,084 96% 1.1M $22M (exactly $21,639,575) Doborog Games
Absolver older $29.99 11,464 74% 344k $10M (exactly $10,314,161) Sloclap
Rise of the Ronin $49.99 6,503 64% 195k $9.8M (exactly $9,752,549) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
SWORD ART ONLINE Fractured Daydream $59.99 2,021 64% 61k $3.6M (exactly $3,637,194) Dimps Corporation
SWORD ART ONLINE Alicization Lycoris older $19.99 5,017 61% 151k $3.0M (exactly $3,008,695) AQURIA Co., Ltd.
SpiderHeck older $14.99 3,922 93% 118k $1.8M (exactly $1,763,723) Neverjam
Forgotten Seas $24.99 475 75% 14k $356k (exactly $356,108) Pangea Game Studios
Ancient Kingdoms · EA $15.99 473 86% 14k $227k (exactly $226,898) Ancient Pixels
Shrine's Legacy $19.99 155 82% 4.7k $93k (exactly $92,954) Positive Concept Games
Tracery of Fate $19.99 129 73% 3.9k $77k (exactly $77,361) Sign Narva
Crimson Capes $14.99 165 90% 5.0k $74k (exactly $74,200) Poor Locke
Age of Barbarians Chronicles $18.99 101 76% 3.0k $58k (exactly $57,540) Crian Soft
IRONSTRIKE $19.99 41 87% 1.2k $25k (exactly $24,588) E McNeill
Buccaneers Shipshape $12.99 31 87% 930 $12k (exactly $12,081) Merso Entertainment

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.