Do I ship it?

GamesSwordplaySwordplay + Deckbuilding

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Deckbuilding Swordplay game?

Swordplay + Deckbuilding

Only 11 developers shipped a Deckbuilding Swordplay game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Backpack Jianghu, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $450. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 13 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 13 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Swordplay + Deckbuilding
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $180 → $119 → $898 → $358 (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Swordplay + Deckbuilding: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $55k (exactly $55,145)
Top 5% $237k (exactly $237,130)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 27
Announced 13
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Swordplay, Deckbuilding
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 75% positive over 870 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $600, 1 in 4 over $55k, 1 in 20 over $230k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 13 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Swordplay with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Strategy RPGFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced
  4. + Auto BattlerFair13 devs · median $1.1k · 8 announced
  5. + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  6. + SamuraiPoor odds12 devs · median $80k · 21 announced
  7. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 22 announced
  8. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds39 devs · median $13k · 79 announced
  9. + FightingPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $12k · 53 announced
  11. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 26 announced
  12. + Open WorldPoor odds40 devs · median $7.5k · 117 announced

All 115 pairs on the Swordplay page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ravenbound older $29.99 770 53% 23k $693k (exactly $692,769) Systemic Reaction™
Backpack Jianghu $13.99 565 80% 17k $237k (exactly $237,130) 背包工作室
Queen's Blade Re:Build $27.77 93 70% 2.8k $77k (exactly $77,478) SE Mobile and Online Co.,Ltd., C&R… (SE Mobile and Online Co.,Ltd., C&R Creative Studios)
Ultimate Hero $9.99 184 65% 5.5k $55k (exactly $55,145) Fishwharf
Heroes of Eternal Quest older $11.99 107 71% 3.2k $38k (exactly $38,488) Drakkar Game Studio
Spelldrifter older $19.99 16 62% 480 $9.6k (exactly $9,595) Free Range Games, Protopixel
天机录 · EA older $3.99 24 33% 720 $2.9k (exactly $2,873) Cosmic Mystery Game Studio
Kungfu older $1.99 18 72% 540 $1.1k (exactly $1,075) amk800
The Deepwoods $5.99 5 80% 150 $898 (exactly $898) Whiteleopard Studios
Card Maker Simulator $7.99 3 100% 90 $719 (exactly $719) Níkolas Santos
Fur and Void $9.99 2 0% 60 $599 (exactly $599) DFS
一剑江湖 $1.99 9 44% 270 $537 (exactly $537) 春秋大梦工作室
Invictvs $4.99 3 66% 90 $449 (exactly $449) buno15
Dominance $1.99 6 83% 180 $358 (exactly $358) Gabriel Cancro, Leonel Rodriguez
Teamfight Royale $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Festucs Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.