Do I ship it?

GamesSwordplaySwordplay + Strategy RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Strategy RPG Swordplay game?

Swordplay + Strategy RPG

Of 22 developers who shipped a Strategy RPG Swordplay game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $360. Revenue is up 2945% on the market; 28 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 2945% on the market, 28 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Swordplay + Strategy RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $897 → $360 → $6.1k → $18k (still earning) → $10k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Swordplay + Strategy RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,703)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $13,793)
Top 5% $520k (exactly $520,113)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 60
Announced 28
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2945% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Swordplay, Strategy RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Turn-Based Combat, JRPG
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 68% positive over 2,847 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $520k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. All of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Swordplay with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  2. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced
  3. + Auto BattlerFair13 devs · median $1.1k · 8 announced
  4. + DeckbuildingFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  5. + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  6. + SamuraiPoor odds12 devs · median $80k · 21 announced
  7. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 22 announced
  8. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds39 devs · median $13k · 79 announced
  9. + FightingPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $12k · 53 announced
  11. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 26 announced
  12. + Open WorldPoor odds40 devs · median $7.5k · 117 announced

All 115 pairs on the Swordplay page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Kenshi older $29.99 98,451 95% 3.0M $89M (exactly $88,576,365) Lo-Fi Games
Monochrome Mobius: Rights and Wrongs Forgotten older $59.99 759 80% 23k $1.4M (exactly $1,365,972) AQUAPLUS
Psychic Kung Fu Master $19.99 1,723 60% 52k $1.0M (exactly $1,033,283) 金十四工作室
Utawarerumono: Past and Present Rediscovered $59.99 289 83% 8.7k $520k (exactly $520,113) AQUAPLUS
Ludus Magnatus: Gladiator Manager Simulator · EA $24.99 612 81% 18k $459k (exactly $458,816) Contec Games
Robber Knight · EA older $39.99 284 64% 8.5k $341k (exactly $340,715) Sartorian
Swords and Sandals 2 Redux older $9.99 552 78% 17k $165k (exactly $165,434) Whiskeybarrel Studios
Age of Gladiators II: Rome older $19.99 272 66% 8.2k $163k (exactly $163,118) Creative Storm Entertainment
Ninja Village older $8.99 546 93% 16k $147k (exactly $147,256) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
Shieldwall Chronicles: Swords of the North older $14.99 171 74% 5.1k $77k (exactly $76,899) Wave Light Games Inc.
Sword Mistress of the Dungeon Town $17.99 38 65% 1.1k $21k (exactly $20,509) ラブリープリチー超愛してる, Lovely Pretty Ultra Lov… (ラブリープリチー超愛してる, Lovely Pretty Ultra Loving You)
Eternal Sword Tomb · EA $8.99 68 77% 2.0k $18k (exactly $18,340) 阿郎
Superstar Strategy $19.99 23 95% 690 $14k (exactly $13,793) Talberon Games
Aegis Force: The Scorian War · EA $24.99 14 71% 420 $10k (exactly $10,496) Zenahive, Ellipsii
鸿运修仙传 $5.99 34 76% 1.0k $6.1k (exactly $6,110) 玉米工作室
SideQuest Hunters $4.99 35 71% 1.1k $5.2k (exactly $5,240) Paparajote Games
Drag'N Dungeon $9.99 11 90% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Demon Girl

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.