Games › Fighting › Fighting + Swordplay
Should I ship a Swordplay Fighting game?
Fighting + Swordplay
Only 13 developers shipped a Swordplay Fighting game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Half Sword, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $13k, ×9.0 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $21M, ×14341 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 33 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $599 (exactly $599) |
|---|---|
| Median | $13k (exactly $13,430) |
| Top 25% | $628k (exactly $628,486) |
| Top 5% | $21M (exactly $21,483,403) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 13 |
| Released games | 118 |
| Announced | 33 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- Fighting, Swordplay
- Price point
- $9.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 72% positive over 37,680 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $600. 6 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Fighting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + SandboxStrong odds
- + Score AttackLong shot
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + Dark FantasyPoor odds
- + Souls-likePoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + CyberpunkPoor odds
- + Local Co-OpPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Hack and SlashPoor odds
- + AdventurePoor odds
- + Spectacle fighterPoor odds
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ | older | $39.99 | 153,782 88% | 4.6M | $184M (exactly $184,492,265) | Respawn Entertainment |
| | FOR HONOR™ | older | $29.99 | 108,492 69% | 3.3M | $98M (exactly $97,610,252) | Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Toronto, Blue Byte) |
| | MORDHAU | older | $29.99 | 91,678 80% | 2.8M | $82M (exactly $82,482,697) | Triternion |
| | Blade and Sorcery | older | $29.99 | 59,074 96% | 1.8M | $53M (exactly $53,148,878) | WarpFrog |
| | Ghostrunner | older | $29.99 | 46,818 91% | 1.4M | $42M (exactly $42,122,155) | One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Iro… (One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Ironworks™, All in! Games) |
| | Sifu | older | $39.99 | 21,620 92% | 649k | $26M (exactly $25,937,514) | Sloclap |
| | Clone Drone in the Danger Zone | older | $19.99 | 36,084 96% | 1.1M | $22M (exactly $21,639,575) | Doborog Games |
| | Half Sword | · EA | $24.99 | 28,656 71% | 860k | $21M (exactly $21,483,403) | Half Sword Games |
| | SOULCALIBUR VI | older | $59.99 | 9,768 83% | 293k | $18M (exactly $17,579,470) | BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc., Dimps Corpor… (BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc., Dimps Corporation) |
| | Absolver | older | $29.99 | 11,464 74% | 344k | $10M (exactly $10,314,161) | Sloclap |
| | BLEACH Rebirth of Souls | $59.99 | 4,831 68% | 145k | $8.7M (exactly $8,694,351) | TAMSOFT CORPORATION | |
| | Virtua Fighter 5 R.E.V.O. World Stage | $19.99 | 1,897 71% | 57k | $1.1M (exactly $1,137,631) | RGG Studio | |
| | Clone Drone in the Hyperdome | $19.99 | 1,048 91% | 31k | $628k (exactly $628,486) | Doborog Games | |
| | Gladio Mori | $15.99 | 1,147 82% | 34k | $550k (exactly $550,216) | Plebeian Studio | |
| | RHYTHMKILL | $9.99 | 45 82% | 1.4k | $13k (exactly $13,486) | GETTAKE | |
| | Shadow Prisoner | · EA | $13.99 | 32 93% | 960 | $13k (exactly $13,430) | Kizawaya |
| | OVERCAT | $6.99 | 12 100% | 360 | $2.5k (exactly $2,516) | SPIKY TEETH STUDIOS | |
| | Games of the Monarch's Eye | $5.99 | 8 25% | 240 | $1.4k (exactly $1,438) | Choice of Games | |
| | DAMex : DArk Matter Exodus | $4.99 | 4 75% | 120 | $599 (exactly $599) | Benoit Locu |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.