Do I ship it?

GamesFightingFighting + Swordplay

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Swordplay Fighting game?

Fighting + Swordplay

Only 13 developers shipped a Swordplay Fighting game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Half Sword, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $13k, ×9.0 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $21M, ×14341 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 33 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 33 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Fighting + Swordplay
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $259k → $119k → $536k → $13k → $1.1M → $13k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Fighting + Swordplay: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $13k (exactly $13,430)
Top 25% $628k (exactly $628,486)
Top 5% $21M (exactly $21,483,403)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 118
Announced 33
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Fighting
effort 7 / 10 · low · frame data, hitboxes and rollback netcode
Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Fighting, Swordplay
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 37,680 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $13k, 1 in 4 over $620k, 1 in 20 over $21M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 6 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Fighting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SandboxStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Score AttackLong shot13 devs · median $599 · 11 announced
  3. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $117k · 26 announced
  4. + Dark FantasyPoor odds11 devs · median $56k · 23 announced
  5. + Souls-likePoor odds8 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  7. + CyberpunkPoor odds5 devs · median $9.6k · 18 announced
  8. + Local Co-OpPoor odds41 devs · median $9.4k · 45 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds45 devs · median $9.0k · 64 announced
  10. + Hack and SlashPoor odds29 devs · median $8.7k · 60 announced
  11. + AdventurePoor odds44 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced
  12. + Spectacle fighterPoor odds25 devs · median $7.2k · 40 announced

All 67 pairs on the Fighting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ older $39.99 153,782 88% 4.6M $184M (exactly $184,492,265) Respawn Entertainment
FOR HONOR™ older $29.99 108,492 69% 3.3M $98M (exactly $97,610,252) Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Toronto, Blue Byte)
MORDHAU older $29.99 91,678 80% 2.8M $82M (exactly $82,482,697) Triternion
Blade and Sorcery older $29.99 59,074 96% 1.8M $53M (exactly $53,148,878) WarpFrog
Ghostrunner older $29.99 46,818 91% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,122,155) One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Iro… (One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Ironworks™, All in! Games)
Sifu older $39.99 21,620 92% 649k $26M (exactly $25,937,514) Sloclap
Clone Drone in the Danger Zone older $19.99 36,084 96% 1.1M $22M (exactly $21,639,575) Doborog Games
Half Sword · EA $24.99 28,656 71% 860k $21M (exactly $21,483,403) Half Sword Games
SOULCALIBUR VI older $59.99 9,768 83% 293k $18M (exactly $17,579,470) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc., Dimps Corpor… (BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc., Dimps Corporation)
Absolver older $29.99 11,464 74% 344k $10M (exactly $10,314,161) Sloclap
BLEACH Rebirth of Souls $59.99 4,831 68% 145k $8.7M (exactly $8,694,351) TAMSOFT CORPORATION
Virtua Fighter 5 R.E.V.O. World Stage $19.99 1,897 71% 57k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,631) RGG Studio
Clone Drone in the Hyperdome $19.99 1,048 91% 31k $628k (exactly $628,486) Doborog Games
Gladio Mori $15.99 1,147 82% 34k $550k (exactly $550,216) Plebeian Studio
RHYTHMKILL $9.99 45 82% 1.4k $13k (exactly $13,486) GETTAKE
Shadow Prisoner · EA $13.99 32 93% 960 $13k (exactly $13,430) Kizawaya
OVERCAT $6.99 12 100% 360 $2.5k (exactly $2,516) SPIKY TEETH STUDIOS
Games of the Monarch's Eye $5.99 8 25% 240 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) Choice of Games
DAMex : DArk Matter Exodus $4.99 4 75% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Benoit Locu

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.