Do I ship it?

GamesSwordplaySwordplay + Auto Battler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Auto Battler Swordplay game?

Swordplay + Auto Battler

Only 13 developers shipped an Auto Battler Swordplay game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Ludus Magnatus: Gladiator Manager Simulator, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 8 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $150. Revenue is up 455% on the market; 8 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 455% on the market, 8 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Swordplay + Auto Battler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $3.6k → $0 (still earning) → $3.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Swordplay + Auto Battler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $148 (exactly $148)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,069)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,596)
Top 5% $459k (exactly $458,816)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 27
Announced 8
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 455% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 30%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Auto Battler
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Swordplay, Auto Battler
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 1,297 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $450k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. All of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 8 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Swordplay with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Strategy RPGFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced
  4. + DeckbuildingFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  5. + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  6. + SamuraiPoor odds12 devs · median $80k · 21 announced
  7. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 22 announced
  8. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds39 devs · median $13k · 79 announced
  9. + FightingPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $12k · 53 announced
  11. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 26 announced
  12. + Open WorldPoor odds40 devs · median $7.5k · 117 announced

All 115 pairs on the Swordplay page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ludus Magnatus: Gladiator Manager Simulator · EA $24.99 612 81% 18k $459k (exactly $458,816) Contec Games
Backpack Jianghu $13.99 565 80% 17k $237k (exactly $237,130) 背包工作室
最后的仙门 The last Practice Sect older $3.99 504 53% 15k $60k (exactly $60,329) 栖鸾工作室
Heroes of Eternal Quest older $11.99 107 71% 3.2k $38k (exactly $38,488) Drakkar Game Studio
Tower of Chaos older $14.99 35 74% 1.1k $16k (exactly $15,740) Laughing Fox Games
SideQuest Hunters $4.99 35 71% 1.1k $5.2k (exactly $5,240) Paparajote Games
CRIXUS: Life of free Gladiator $7.99 15 46% 450 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Waseku
Drag'N Dungeon $9.99 11 90% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Demon Girl
Cat Survivors $4.99 8 87% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Ibon Studios
Kungfu older $1.99 18 72% 540 $1.1k (exactly $1,075) amk800
RiftGuard $0.99 36 91% 1.1k $1.1k (exactly $1,069) Artur Rezende
懒人也江湖 · EA $4.99 7 57% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) 恒睿游戏
Card Maker Simulator $7.99 3 100% 90 $719 (exactly $719) Níkolas Santos
Ninja Wars: Battle Simulator $0.99 5 40% 150 $148 (exactly $148) Yusuf Islam Seyhan, Samet Acar

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.