Do I ship it?

Games › Swordplay › Swordplay + Turn-Based Tactics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Tactics Swordplay game?

Swordplay + Turn-Based Tactics

Of 21 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Tactics Swordplay game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $230k, ×378 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 29 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 29 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Swordplay + Turn-Based Tactics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $629 → $32k → $2.2k → $2.4k → $599 → $809 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Swordplay + Turn-Based Tactics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $358 (exactly $358)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $12,126)
Top 5% $237k (exactly $237,130)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 65
Announced 29
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Swordplay, Turn-Based Tactics; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Combat, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 68% positive over 4,524 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $600, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $230k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Swordplay with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Strategy RPGFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced
  4. + Auto BattlerFair13 devs · median $1.1k · 8 announced
  5. + DeckbuildingFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  6. + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  7. + SamuraiPoor odds12 devs · median $80k · 21 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 22 announced
  9. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds39 devs · median $13k · 79 announced
  10. + FightingPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $12k · 53 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 26 announced

All 115 pairs on the Swordplay page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Wandering Sword 2023 · $28M NORSE: Oath of Blood 2026 · $2.7M 英雄群侠传II 2019 · $756k Backpack Jianghu 2026 · $237k 大侠请重来 2022 · $213k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Wandering Sword older $24.99 37,034 94% 1.1M $28M (exactly $27,764,390) The Swordman Studio
NORSE: Oath of Blood $34.99 2,535 56% 76k $2.7M (exactly $2,660,990) Arctic Hazard
英雄群侠传II older $11.99 2,103 88% 63k $756k (exactly $756,449) 熊窝dodox
Backpack Jianghu $13.99 565 80% 17k $237k (exactly $237,130) 背包工作室
大侠请重来 older $1.99 3,564 82% 107k $213k (exactly $212,771) 熊窝dodox
Swords and Sandals 2 Redux older $9.99 552 78% 17k $165k (exactly $165,434) Whiskeybarrel Studios
Age of Gladiators II: Rome older $19.99 272 66% 8.2k $163k (exactly $163,118) Creative Storm Entertainment
Jam Jump older $39.99 89 86% 2.7k $107k (exactly $106,773) Galactic Geckon
小小侠客模拟器 $2.99 1,103 86% 33k $99k (exactly $98,939) 小小游戏
Shieldwall Chronicles: Swords of the North older $14.99 171 74% 5.1k $77k (exactly $76,899) Wave Light Games Inc.
Ultimate Hero $9.99 184 65% 5.5k $55k (exactly $55,145) Fishwharf
Superstar Strategy $19.99 23 95% 690 $14k (exactly $13,793) Talberon Games
Politon $4.99 81 90% 2.4k $12k (exactly $12,126) Pinq Games
Aegis Force: The Scorian War · EA $24.99 14 71% 420 $10k (exactly $10,496) Zenahive, Ellipsii
The Dungeon Paradox $19.99 4 100% 120 $2.4k (exactly $2,399) Digital Software
傲世修仙录 $5.99 12 58% 360 $2.2k (exactly $2,156) 半醉的蜗牛
Dungeon-Bot $8.99 3 100% 90 $809 (exactly $809) XREALL

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.