Do I ship it?

GamesSwordplaySwordplay + Tower Defense

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tower Defense Swordplay game?

Swordplay + Tower Defense

Only 12 developers shipped a Tower Defense Swordplay game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sengoku Voxel Castle With Zundamon, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 17 more are announced, ×5.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $540 against a market of $630. 17 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 17 announced, ×5.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Swordplay + Tower Defense
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Swordplay + Tower Defense: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $539 (exactly $539)
Top 25% $8.9k (exactly $8,880)
Top 5% $41k (exactly $41,308)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 28
Announced 17
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 65% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Tower Defense
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Swordplay, Tower Defense
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 256 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $540, 1 in 4 over $8.8k, 1 in 20 over $41k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 17 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Swordplay with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Strategy RPGFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced
  4. + Auto BattlerFair13 devs · median $1.1k · 8 announced
  5. + DeckbuildingFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  6. + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  7. + SamuraiPoor odds12 devs · median $80k · 21 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 22 announced
  9. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds39 devs · median $13k · 79 announced
  10. + FightingPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $12k · 53 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 26 announced

All 115 pairs on the Swordplay page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
最后的仙门 The last Practice Sect older $3.99 504 53% 15k $60k (exactly $60,329) 栖鸾工作室
Hell Warders older $14.99 111 54% 3.3k $50k (exactly $49,917) Anti Gravity Game Studios
Sengoku Voxel Castle With Zundamon · EA $12.99 106 95% 3.2k $41k (exactly $41,308) KC Project
Jet Set Knights older $9.99 49 81% 1.5k $15k (exactly $14,685) FobTi interactive
Robin Hood: Sherwood Defenders $11.99 25 44% 750 $9.0k (exactly $8,992) MeanAstronauts
宗门最后的长老 $2.99 99 96% 3.0k $8.9k (exactly $8,880) KUMA studio
Castle Guardian older $3.99 22 100% 660 $2.6k (exactly $2,633) Iron Forge Games
MEDIEVAL KNIGHTMARE · EA older $3.99 15 53% 450 $1.8k (exactly $1,796) MrFatcat
Defenders Guild older $3.99 10 70% 300 $1.2k (exactly $1,197) Ruben Arranz
Last Stronghold $3.99 8 62% 240 $958 (exactly $958) skR1me
This sect accepts female disciples only $8.99 2 50% 60 $539 (exactly $539) sln
Sears: The Sky Frontier $5.99 3 33% 90 $539 (exactly $539) Acoma Games
Geometry raid $1.99 8 87% 240 $478 (exactly $478) RoughStone
Merge Guard $3.99 3 66% 90 $359 (exactly $359) Raido Studios
Knight of Noshland $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Meow Burrito Games
Vasterra $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Pollo Solo Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.