Do I ship it?

Games › Swordplay › Swordplay + Tactical RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tactical RPG Swordplay game?

Swordplay + Tactical RPG

Of 20 developers who shipped a Tactical RPG Swordplay game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 14 developers shipped in the last year and 23 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 1310% on the market, 23 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Swordplay + Tactical RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $180 → $2.2k → $360 → $419 → $269 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Swordplay + Tactical RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $450 (exactly $450)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,496)
Top 5% $2.7M (exactly $2,660,990)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 59
Announced 23
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1310% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Tactical RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Swordplay, Tactical RPG; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, JRPG, Strategy
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 60% positive over 2,965 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $450, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $2.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 23 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Swordplay with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Strategy RPGFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced
  4. + Auto BattlerFair13 devs · median $1.1k · 8 announced
  5. + DeckbuildingFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  6. + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  7. + SamuraiPoor odds12 devs · median $80k · 21 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 22 announced
  9. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds39 devs · median $13k · 79 announced
  10. + FightingPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $12k · 53 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 26 announced

All 115 pairs on the Swordplay page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

NORSE: Oath of Blood 2026 · $2.7M Monochrome Mobius: Rights and Wrongs Forgotten 2022 · $1.4M 英雄群侠传II 2019 · $756k Utawarerumono: Past and Present Rediscovered 2026 · $520k Tales Of Glory 2020 · $344k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
NORSE: Oath of Blood $34.99 2,535 56% 76k $2.7M (exactly $2,660,990) Arctic Hazard
Monochrome Mobius: Rights and Wrongs Forgotten older $59.99 759 80% 23k $1.4M (exactly $1,365,972) AQUAPLUS
英雄群侠传II older $11.99 2,103 88% 63k $756k (exactly $756,449) 熊窝dodox
Utawarerumono: Past and Present Rediscovered $59.99 289 83% 8.7k $520k (exactly $520,113) AQUAPLUS
Tales Of Glory older $10.99 1,042 80% 31k $344k (exactly $343,547) BlackTale Games
Swords and Sandals 2 Redux older $9.99 552 78% 17k $165k (exactly $165,434) Whiskeybarrel Studios
Ninja Village older $8.99 546 93% 16k $147k (exactly $147,256) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
Shieldwall Chronicles: Swords of the North older $14.99 171 74% 5.1k $77k (exactly $76,899) Wave Light Games Inc.
Telepath Tactics Liberated older $19.99 120 85% 3.6k $72k (exactly $71,964) Sinister Design
RFVR · EA older $29.99 49 81% 1.5k $44k (exactly $44,085) OMFGames
Sword Mistress of the Dungeon Town $17.99 38 65% 1.1k $21k (exactly $20,509) ラブリープリチー超愛してる, Lovely Pretty Ultra Lov… (ラブリープリチー超愛してる, Lovely Pretty Ultra Loving You)
Superstar Strategy $19.99 23 95% 690 $14k (exactly $13,793) Talberon Games
Aegis Force: The Scorian War · EA $24.99 14 71% 420 $10k (exactly $10,496) Zenahive, Ellipsii
鸿运修仙传 $5.99 34 76% 1.0k $6.1k (exactly $6,110) 玉米工作室
Drag'N Dungeon $9.99 11 90% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Demon Girl
The Dungeon Paradox $19.99 4 100% 120 $2.4k (exactly $2,399) Digital Software
傲世修仙录 $5.99 12 58% 360 $2.2k (exactly $2,156) 半醉的蜗牛
DarkShine · EA $3.00 5 100% 150 $450 (exactly $450) DScorp

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.