Do I ship it?

GamesTop-Down ShooterTop-Down Shooter + Supernatural

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Supernatural Top-Down Shooter?

Top-Down Shooter + Supernatural

Only 11 developers shipped a Supernatural Top-Down Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Section 13, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced, ×9.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $1.2k against a market of $480. 39 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 870% on the market, 39 announced, ×9.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Top-Down Shooter + Supernatural
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $742 → $299 → $16k
Outcomes for Top-Down Shooter + Supernatural: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,166)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $16,018)
Top 5% $462k (exactly $461,769)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 42
Announced 39
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 870% on the market, supply 45% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 31%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Supernatural
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Top-Down Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 72% positive over 1,587 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $460k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×9.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Top-Down Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + VampiresFair16 devs · median $3.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Turn-Based StrategyFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  3. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 15 announced
  4. + IdlerFair24 devs · median $748 · 30 announced
  5. + ArcheryFair9 devs · median $359 · 11 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds12 devs · median $6.5k · 28 announced
  7. + Tactical RPGPoor odds12 devs · median $5.5k · 16 announced
  8. + Action RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + HistoricalPoor odds18 devs · median $3.3k · 24 announced
  10. + ModernPoor odds13 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  11. + CraftingPoor odds45 devs · median $3.1k · 125 announced
  12. + DystopianPoor odds24 devs · median $3.1k · 92 announced

All 150 pairs on the Top-Down Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HellSign older $19.99 2,147 67% 64k $1.3M (exactly $1,287,556) Ballistic Interactive
Section 13 $19.99 770 70% 23k $462k (exactly $461,769) Ocean Drive Studio, Inc.
RIFTSTORM · EA $14.99 659 70% 20k $296k (exactly $296,352) Confiction Labs, Agate
Ritual: Crown of Horns older $19.99 58 68% 1.7k $35k (exactly $34,783) Draw Distance
ARRIVAL: ZERO EARTH older $5.99 154 80% 4.6k $28k (exactly $27,674) jounitus
Seek $4.99 107 81% 3.2k $16k (exactly $16,018) cloud_li
BAROQUE SHOOTING: REVERSED $14.99 14 92% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) Sting
Swarm Survivor older $4.99 34 85% 1.0k $5.1k (exactly $5,090) MegalOh! Games
Mad Devils: Damned-finitive Edition older $14.99 11 54% 330 $4.9k (exactly $4,947) Itzy Interactive Inc.
Breach the Abyss $4.99 18 100% 540 $2.7k (exactly $2,695) Digital Firewood
Spooky Survivors $2.99 13 92% 390 $1.2k (exactly $1,166) Aligned Games
Vengeance is His $4.99 2 50% 60 $299 (exactly $299) SSamBBas
Doom of the Undying · EA $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) ClawSea
Florida Survivor $3.99 2 100% 60 $239 (exactly $239) Cheddar Mine Games
Helen in Hell $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Soined

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.