Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Walking Simulator

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Walking Simulator Sports game?

Sports + Walking Simulator

Of 37 developers who shipped a Walking Simulator Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×1983 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 25 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 25 announced, ×1.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Walking Simulator
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 37
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.2k → $1.2k → $130k → $30 → $1.2k (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Walking Simulator: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 37
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $4.2k (exactly $4,194)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,245,577)
Developers, 2 yr 37
Released games 90
Announced 25
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Walking Simulator
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, Walking Simulator; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Simulation, Action
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 22,454 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $4.1k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
theHunter: Call of the Wild™ older $19.99 170,472 89% 5.1M $102M (exactly $102,232,058) Expansive Worlds
Cairn $29.99 18,224 94% 547k $16M (exactly $16,396,133) The Game Bakers
Call of the Wild: The Angler™ older $29.99 6,122 63% 184k $5.5M (exactly $5,507,963) Expansive Worlds
Ultimate Fishing® Simulator 2 $19.99 2,077 66% 62k $1.2M (exactly $1,245,577) Silent Bear Studio, SHINING GAMES
despelote $14.99 1,011 95% 30k $455k (exactly $454,647) Julián Cordero, Sebastian Valbuena
BULT: Hunting simulator · EA $9.99 869 87% 26k $260k (exactly $260,439) Nordrise
Fishing Adventure older $4.99 1,479 85% 44k $221k (exactly $221,406) MasterCode
Virtual Hunter $24.99 173 71% 5.2k $130k (exactly $129,698) Korpi Games Oy
My Riding Stables: Life with Horses older $14.99 244 88% 7.3k $110k (exactly $109,727) Sproing
Climber: Sky is the Limit older $21.99 142 69% 4.3k $94k (exactly $93,677) A2 Softworks, Art Games Studio S.A.
Sports: Renovations $24.99 53 58% 1.6k $40k (exactly $39,734) Goat Gamez
Infinite Orienteering: The Hiker's Path · EA $18.99 18 77% 540 $10k (exactly $10,255) Portality AB, Toleap Consulting AB
Just Skill Shooter 4 $9.99 17 76% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) Gamesforgames
run for money Hunter vs. Runner! Which side will you win!? $29.99 5 80% 150 $4.5k (exactly $4,498) INFINITY Co., Ltd.
Sportvida CyberDash $19.99 7 85% 210 $4.2k (exactly $4,198) ible Sportvida

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.