Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Turn-Based Strategy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Strategy Sports game?

Sports + Turn-Based Strategy

Of 60 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Strategy Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 91 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $88k, ×141 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 91 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 91 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Turn-Based Strategy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 60
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $270 → $9.9k → $2.5k → $2.2k → $4.2k → $899 → $3.3k (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Turn-Based Strategy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 60
Bottom 30% $270 (exactly $270)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $4.5k (exactly $4,496)
Top 5% $89k (exactly $88,756)
Developers, 2 yr 60
Released games 198
Announced 91
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, Turn-Based Strategy; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Tactics, Simulation
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 1,422 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $4.4k, 1 in 20 over $88k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 9 in 10 of the 29 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 91 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Blood Bowl 2: Legendary Edition (Classic) older $29.99 7,077 78% 212k $6.4M (exactly $6,367,177) Cyanide Studios
Blood Bowl 3 older $29.99 3,940 51% 118k $3.5M (exactly $3,544,818) Cyanide Studio
Football, Tactics & Glory older $24.99 3,998 87% 120k $3.0M (exactly $2,997,301) Creoteam
Esports Godfather older $19.99 4,319 90% 130k $2.6M (exactly $2,590,104) Asteroid Game Studio
Chess Ultra older $12.99 1,832 76% 55k $714k (exactly $713,930) Ripstone
Blood Bowl: Chaos Edition (Classic) older $14.99 1,386 79% 42k $623k (exactly $623,284) Cyanide Studios
Pro Cycling Manager 25 $39.99 496 75% 15k $595k (exactly $595,051) Cyanide Studio
GOAL! The Club Manager · EA older $29.99 364 33% 11k $327k (exactly $327,491) 2tainment
Tennis Elbow Manager 2 older $29.99 202 91% 6.1k $182k (exactly $181,739) Mana Games
Qvadriga older $19.99 291 84% 8.7k $175k (exactly $174,513) Turnopia
Master of Chess $19.99 290 83% 8.7k $174k (exactly $173,913) BRANE
Franchise Hockey Manager 11 $19.99 148 70% 4.4k $89k (exactly $88,756) game54 Software, Out of the Park Develo… (game54 Software, Out of the Park Developments)
Franchise Hockey Manager 12 $19.99 132 78% 4.0k $79k (exactly $79,160) game54 Software, Out of the Park Develo… (game54 Software, Out of the Park Developments)
Infinity: HexaDome Tactics $19.99 92 75% 2.8k $55k (exactly $55,172) Blindspot Games
Smash it Wild: Tactical Volleyball Roguelike $11.99 106 83% 3.2k $38k (exactly $38,128) Goblinz Studio, Ernestine
Pro Strategy Football 2026 $24.99 28 89% 840 $21k (exactly $20,992) Kerry Batts
Delta Manager · EA $12.99 28 92% 840 $11k (exactly $10,912) Fassi Blue
Boeckham's Football Manager $4.99 60 91% 1.8k $9.0k (exactly $8,982) Bitbeast Games
Punch to Glory $6.99 42 92% 1.3k $8.8k (exactly $8,807) Musa GUNGOR

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.