Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Turn-Based Combat

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Combat Sports game?

Sports + Turn-Based Combat

Of 20 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Combat Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $170k, ×277 the market median. Revenue is up 800% on the market; 33 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 800% on the market, 33 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Turn-Based Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $1.5k → $3.2k → $150 → $4.5k (still earning) → $12k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Turn-Based Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,499)
Top 25% $4.7k (exactly $4,676)
Top 5% $174k (exactly $173,913)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 62
Announced 33
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 800% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, Turn-Based Combat; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 535 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $4.6k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Football, Tactics & Glory older $24.99 3,998 87% 120k $3.0M (exactly $2,997,301) Creoteam
Master of Chess $19.99 290 83% 8.7k $174k (exactly $173,913) BRANE
Age of Gladiators II: Rome older $19.99 272 66% 8.2k $163k (exactly $163,118) Creative Storm Entertainment
Lilly Knight and the Three Cities of Lust older $12.99 245 79% 7.4k $95k (exactly $95,476) HFTGames
Dungeon Deathball older $11.99 193 95% 5.8k $69k (exactly $69,422) Matt Glanville
Tricking 0 · EA older $19.99 107 89% 3.2k $64k (exactly $64,168) Full-in Studios
Chessaria: The Tactical Adventure (Chess) older $19.99 99 74% 3.0k $59k (exactly $59,370) Pixel Wizards
Infinity: HexaDome Tactics $19.99 92 75% 2.8k $55k (exactly $55,172) Blindspot Games
Cyber Avenger older $12.99 131 87% 3.9k $51k (exactly $51,051) Quacky Games
Age of Gladiators II: Death League older $12.99 84 71% 2.5k $33k (exactly $32,735) Creative Storm Entertainment
Uchi No Heya! $9.99 39 100% 1.2k $12k (exactly $11,688) James West
DR Dominoes $5.99 40 100% 1.2k $7.2k (exactly $7,188) Gammes
SBcatfight game $12.99 12 91% 360 $4.7k (exactly $4,676) DoNyan
Sim: Heavyweight Boxing Champion $9.99 15 93% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) Jfsimgames
Turn Based Boxing: Tactics - Legends Edition $9.99 14 85% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) The Slanted Room
Ballardo: Roguelike Billiards · EA $8.99 13 53% 390 $3.5k (exactly $3,506) Nue Games
Crazy Robot Ball $5.99 18 100% 540 $3.2k (exactly $3,235) Blue Band Studio
Snooker Billiard $24.99 2 50% 60 $1.5k (exactly $1,499) DotStudio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.