Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Survival

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sports Survival game?

Sports + Survival

Of 21 developers who shipped a Sports Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×1.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $330; 1 in 20 cleared $290k, ×463 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 29 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 29 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Survival
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.4k → $16k → $1.5k → $300 → $5.1k → $4.8k → $809 (still earning) → $959 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Survival: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $327 (exactly $327)
Median $959 (exactly $959)
Top 25% $9.6k (exactly $9,646)
Top 5% $291k (exactly $290,854)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 135
Announced 29
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, Survival; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Action, Action-Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 2D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 19,825 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $330, median $960, 1 in 4 over $9.6k, 1 in 20 over $290k.

3 in 10 developers made under $330. 8 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
theHunter: Call of the Wild™ older $19.99 170,472 89% 5.1M $102M (exactly $102,232,058) Expansive Worlds
Cairn $29.99 18,224 94% 547k $16M (exactly $16,396,133) The Game Bakers
Nimbatus - The Space Drone Constructor older $19.99 1,758 78% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,054,273) Stray Fawn Studio
Whisker Squadron: Survivor $19.99 485 77% 15k $291k (exactly $290,854) Flippfly LLC
BULT: Hunting simulator · EA $9.99 869 87% 26k $260k (exactly $260,439) Nordrise
Bloody Rally Show older $19.99 248 89% 7.4k $149k (exactly $148,726) Kodo Linija
Offroad Mechanic Simulator older $19.99 238 71% 7.1k $143k (exactly $142,729) Image Power S.A., GameFormatic S.A.
Climber: Sky is the Limit older $21.99 142 69% 4.3k $94k (exactly $93,677) A2 Softworks, Art Games Studio S.A.
Day D: Tower Rush older $14.99 206 74% 6.2k $93k (exactly $92,638) Creobit
Bloodsports.TV older $9.99 255 83% 7.7k $76k (exactly $76,424) Toadman Interactive, Fatshark
Dawn of Anarchy $13.99 125 84% 3.8k $52k (exactly $52,462) Quacky Games
Skullbreaker $29.99 13 92% 390 $12k (exactly $11,696) Sharkgame
An Other Golf Game · EA $6.99 46 86% 1.4k $9.6k (exactly $9,646) waxycaps
The Great Axe $19.99 13 84% 390 $7.8k (exactly $7,796) Gamesforgames
Just Skill Shooter: Catacombs $9.99 17 64% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) Gamesforgames
The Armed Shadow $9.99 17 94% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) Gamesforgames
Restart Mode $9.99 16 81% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) Gamesforgames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.