Do I ship it?

GamesTop-Down ShooterTop-Down Shooter + Spaceships

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Spaceship Top-Down Shooter?

Top-Down Shooter + Spaceships

Of 21 developers who shipped a Spaceship Top-Down Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 17 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 11 developers shipped in the last year and 17 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 17 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Top-Down Shooter + Spaceships
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $119 → $539 → $1.8k → $150 → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Top-Down Shooter + Spaceships: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $239 (exactly $239)
Top 25% $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Top 5% $115k (exactly $115,454)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 44
Announced 17
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Spaceships
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Top-Down Shooter; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Shooter, Action, Arcade
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 1,803 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $240, 1 in 4 over $1.7k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 7 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 17 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Top-Down Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + VampiresFair16 devs · median $3.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Turn-Based StrategyFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  3. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 15 announced
  4. + IdlerFair24 devs · median $748 · 30 announced
  5. + ArcheryFair9 devs · median $359 · 11 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds12 devs · median $6.5k · 28 announced
  7. + Tactical RPGPoor odds12 devs · median $5.5k · 16 announced
  8. + Action RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + HistoricalPoor odds18 devs · median $3.3k · 24 announced
  10. + ModernPoor odds13 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  11. + CraftingPoor odds45 devs · median $3.1k · 125 announced
  12. + DystopianPoor odds24 devs · median $3.1k · 92 announced

All 150 pairs on the Top-Down Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Star Valor older $24.99 3,272 88% 98k $2.5M (exactly $2,453,018) Rafael Burgos
Reality Break $24.99 683 80% 20k $512k (exactly $512,045) Element Games, LLC
Star Vortex · EA $24.99 154 84% 4.6k $115k (exactly $115,454) Zorg Games
Power of Ten older $11.99 248 79% 7.4k $89k (exactly $89,206) Pew Times Three
I See Red older $9.99 106 90% 3.2k $32k (exactly $31,768) Whiteboard Games
Deep Space Cache $0.99 884 90% 27k $26k (exactly $26,255) Monu
XIIZEAL older $11.99 59 88% 1.8k $21k (exactly $21,222) TRIANGLE SERVICE
SUPERVERSE $9.99 37 70% 1.1k $11k (exactly $11,089) Superverse Industries
Spaceship Simulator older $6.99 23 78% 690 $4.8k (exactly $4,823) chenjd
Seven Suns of Orion $4.99 22 100% 660 $3.3k (exactly $3,293) FerroFerrous
Space Defender · EA $9.99 6 100% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) Petit Vaisseau
Infinite Empire · EA $14.99 2 100% 60 $899 (exactly $899) Better Tools LLC
Lawnmower game Ufo Chase 2 $1.99 10 80% 300 $597 (exactly $597) Valkeala Software
I Made Myself a Ship $5.99 3 100% 90 $539 (exactly $539) Draih
星宇战舰 Astral-Battlecraft $4.99 2 0% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Jilin Code Rabbit Network Game Co.,Ltd.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.