Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Space

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space Sports game?

Sports + Space

Of 35 developers who shipped a Space Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $120. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 33 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 33 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Space
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $899 → $119 → $959 → $150 → $3.9k → $538 → $719 (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Space: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $538 (exactly $538)
Top 25% $1.7k (exactly $1,709)
Top 5% $280k (exactly $280,388)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 137
Announced 33
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 150% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Space
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Arcade
Price point
$6.00 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 2D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.00.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 1,070 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $540, 1 in 4 over $1.7k, 1 in 20 over $280k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Redout: Enhanced Edition older $19.99 3,438 84% 103k $2.1M (exactly $2,061,769) 34BigThings srl
Nimbatus - The Space Drone Constructor older $19.99 1,758 78% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,054,273) Stray Fawn Studio
Redout 2 older $19.99 1,168 82% 35k $700k (exactly $700,450) 34BigThings srl
Ricochet older $4.99 4,549 82% 136k $681k (exactly $680,985) Valve
Whisker Squadron: Survivor $19.99 485 77% 15k $291k (exactly $290,854) Flippfly LLC
Exo Rally Championship $24.99 374 90% 11k $280k (exactly $280,388) Exbleative
STARWHAL older $11.99 496 92% 15k $178k (exactly $178,411) Breakfall
OhShape older $19.99 226 73% 6.8k $136k (exactly $135,532) Odders Lab
Thunder Ray older $14.99 270 71% 8.1k $121k (exactly $121,419) Purple Tree S R L
ROCKETSROCKETSROCKETS older $6.99 316 82% 9.5k $66k (exactly $66,265) Radial Games Corp, Loren Bednar, Dr. Ki… (Radial Games Corp, Loren Bednar, Dr. Kimberly Voll, Lindsay Jorgensen)
Dawn of Anarchy $13.99 125 84% 3.8k $52k (exactly $52,462) Quacky Games
Racket Pinball $19.99 37 91% 1.1k $22k (exactly $22,189) NiVision
Millennium Runners $12.99 12 58% 360 $4.7k (exactly $4,676) Commodore Industries
Supersonic Bridge Racing $11.99 11 100% 330 $4.0k (exactly $3,957) Stumi Games
Fastro Dude $9.99 13 84% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Gamesforgames
Teach Kids Games $9.99 8 0% 240 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) 2kblater
on Titan $18.99 3 100% 90 $1.7k (exactly $1,709) Aleksandr Akimov
Snooker Billiard $24.99 2 50% 60 $1.5k (exactly $1,499) DotStudio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.