Do I ship it?

GamesSwordplaySwordplay + Score Attack

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Score Attack Swordplay game?

Swordplay + Score Attack

Only 17 developers shipped a Score Attack Swordplay game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Onimusha 2: Samurai's Destiny, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $90 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 7 developers shipped in the last year and 19 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 115% on the market, 19 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Swordplay + Score Attack
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $90 → $449 → $300 → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Swordplay + Score Attack: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,596)
Top 5% $597k (exactly $596,501)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 50
Announced 19
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 115% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Score Attack
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Swordplay, Score Attack; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Hack and Slash, Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $10.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Linear
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $10.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 817 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $300, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $590k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Swordplay with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Strategy RPGFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced
  4. + Auto BattlerFair13 devs · median $1.1k · 8 announced
  5. + DeckbuildingFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  6. + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  7. + SamuraiPoor odds12 devs · median $80k · 21 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 22 announced
  9. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds39 devs · median $13k · 79 announced
  10. + FightingPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $12k · 53 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 26 announced

All 115 pairs on the Swordplay page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Onimusha 2: Samurai's Destiny $29.99 663 85% 20k $597k (exactly $596,501) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Fruit Ninja VR older $14.99 801 80% 24k $360k (exactly $360,210) Halfbrick Studios Pty Ltd
Shing! older $19.99 334 79% 10k $200k (exactly $200,300) Mass Creation
COGEN: Sword of Rewind / COGEN: 大鳥こはくと刻の剣 older $24.99 112 67% 3.4k $84k (exactly $83,966) Gemdrops, Inc.
NINJA GIRL older $13.99 53 73% 1.6k $22k (exactly $22,244) Cream Meron
HAYAI older $1.99 236 98% 7.1k $14k (exactly $14,089) Chaoclypse
Disco Samurai $9.99 45 88% 1.4k $13k (exactly $13,486) Pixel Fiber Games
Velocity Noodle older $12.99 28 89% 840 $11k (exactly $10,912) Shotgun Anaconda
EvoWars: New Era $8.99 25 72% 750 $6.7k (exactly $6,742) Night Steed Games
JUST ONE MAN · EA $10.99 20 90% 600 $6.6k (exactly $6,594) Raikiri
Smerch Battle Arena · EA $9.99 12 91% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Smerch Games
KatanaHime $0.99 45 95% 1.4k $1.3k (exactly $1,336) Heuristic Forge
Dalafri $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Y.Kageyama
HaeTae: Guardians · EA $5.99 2 100% 60 $359 (exactly $359) JipangYiGames.Corp
Odania Sports Arena $9.99 1 0% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Odania GmbH
Bamboo Bushido $2.99 1 100% 30 $90 (exactly $90) Waffle Hound Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.