Do I ship it?

GamesTop-Down ShooterTop-Down Shooter + Science

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Science Top-Down Shooter?

Top-Down Shooter + Science

Only 12 developers shipped a Science Top-Down Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Genome Guardian 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 7 developers shipped in the last year and 23 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 23 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Top-Down Shooter + Science
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.2k → $5.8k → $180 → $360 → $239 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Top-Down Shooter + Science: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $239 (exactly $239)
Top 25% $2.1k (exactly $2,096)
Top 5% $197k (exactly $196,677)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 30
Announced 23
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Science
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Top-Down Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 95% positive over 464 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $240, 1 in 4 over $2.0k, 1 in 20 over $190k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 23 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Top-Down Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + VampiresFair16 devs · median $3.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Turn-Based StrategyFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  3. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 15 announced
  4. + IdlerFair24 devs · median $748 · 30 announced
  5. + ArcheryFair9 devs · median $359 · 11 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds12 devs · median $6.5k · 28 announced
  7. + Tactical RPGPoor odds12 devs · median $5.5k · 16 announced
  8. + Action RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + HistoricalPoor odds18 devs · median $3.3k · 24 announced
  10. + ModernPoor odds13 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  11. + CraftingPoor odds45 devs · median $3.1k · 125 announced
  12. + DystopianPoor odds24 devs · median $3.1k · 92 announced

All 150 pairs on the Top-Down Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tesla vs Lovecraft older $14.99 851 89% 26k $383k (exactly $382,695) 10tons Ltd
Genome Guardian older $11.99 711 92% 21k $256k (exactly $255,747) Alpherior
Genome Guardian 2 · EA $15.99 410 95% 12k $197k (exactly $196,677) Alpherior
Gem Defender: Soyjak Survivors older $3.99 1,045 94% 31k $125k (exactly $125,086) Coby Dox, Chudd Howard
Tesla Force older $16.99 148 77% 4.4k $75k (exactly $75,436) 10tons Ltd
Sus Virus Amogus older $39.99 51 82% 1.5k $61k (exactly $61,185) Galactic Geckon
Captain Forever Trilogy older $9.99 139 86% 4.2k $42k (exactly $41,658) Farbs
REPLIKATOR older $5.99 115 85% 3.5k $21k (exactly $20,666) R_Games
Technocide older $11.99 16 93% 480 $5.8k (exactly $5,755) Dextrous Games
Metavaxx older $5.99 29 86% 870 $5.2k (exactly $5,211) PUNKCAKE Delicieux
GOST of Time $4.99 27 100% 810 $4.0k (exactly $4,042) IzHard
IMRY $4.99 14 85% 420 $2.1k (exactly $2,096) Igor Yakunin
Swarm Sweeper $2.99 7 100% 210 $628 (exactly $628) Hi-Develop
Evoscape $11.99 1 100% 30 $360 (exactly $360) Magic Mill
Olbers Paradox $3.99 2 100% 60 $239 (exactly $239) Neko Sphere
Demeter $5.99 1 100% 30 $180 (exactly $180) Myth Machine
From The Dust $0.99 1 100% 30 $30 (exactly $30) Up Down Play Studio
粒子战争 Particle Wars · EA $0.99 1 100% 30 $30 (exactly $30) jizai
Deadline:Aphelion · EA $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Merlyn

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.