Do I ship it?

GamesTop-Down ShooterTop-Down Shooter + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Top-Down Shooter?

Top-Down Shooter + Sci-fi

Of 385 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Top-Down Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 600 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 217 developers shipped in the last year and 600 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 600 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Top-Down Shooter + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 385
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $899 → $1.3k → $719 → $1.3k → $657 → $300 → $299 (still earning) → $240 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Top-Down Shooter + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 385
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $3.1k (exactly $3,112)
Top 5% $115k (exactly $115,454)
Developers, 2 yr 385
Released games 1,105
Announced 600
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Top-Down Shooter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Bullet Hell
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 60,082 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $300, 1 in 4 over $3.1k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 192 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 600 games are announced against 217 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Top-Down Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + VampiresFair16 devs · median $3.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Turn-Based StrategyFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  3. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 15 announced
  4. + IdlerFair24 devs · median $748 · 30 announced
  5. + ArcheryFair9 devs · median $359 · 11 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds12 devs · median $6.5k · 28 announced
  7. + Tactical RPGPoor odds12 devs · median $5.5k · 16 announced
  8. + Action RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + HistoricalPoor odds18 devs · median $3.3k · 24 announced
  10. + ModernPoor odds13 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  11. + CraftingPoor odds45 devs · median $3.1k · 125 announced
  12. + DystopianPoor odds24 devs · median $3.1k · 92 announced

All 150 pairs on the Top-Down Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Aliens: Dark Descent older $39.99 15,310 87% 459k $18M (exactly $18,367,407) Tindalos Interactive
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
Brotato older $4.99 111,407 95% 3.3M $17M (exactly $16,677,628) Blobfish
HELLDIVERS™ Dive Harder Edition older $19.99 25,663 90% 770k $15M (exactly $15,390,101) Arrowhead Game Studios
RUINER older $19.99 10,338 89% 310k $6.2M (exactly $6,199,699) Reikon Games
Brigador: Up-Armored Edition older $24.99 4,580 93% 137k $3.4M (exactly $3,433,626) Stellar Jockeys, Gausswerks
Starcom: Unknown Space older $24.99 4,464 92% 134k $3.3M (exactly $3,346,661) Wx3 Labs, LLC
Heat Signature older $14.99 6,849 94% 205k $3.1M (exactly $3,079,995) Suspicious Developments
Killsquad older $29.99 2,839 71% 85k $2.6M (exactly $2,554,248) Novarama
Star Valor older $24.99 3,272 88% 98k $2.5M (exactly $2,453,018) Rafael Burgos
R.I.P. - Reincarnation Insurance Program $14.99 2,727 76% 82k $1.2M (exactly $1,226,332) WarmCore Studio
Greedland $12.99 2,919 83% 88k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,534) VaMP He
Relic Hunters Legend $19.99 1,101 65% 33k $660k (exactly $660,270) Rogue Snail
Arms of God · EA $11.50 1,871 88% 56k $645k (exactly $645,495) Dark Jay Studio
TerraTech Legion $9.99 2,109 81% 63k $632k (exactly $632,067) Payload Studios
Reality Break $24.99 683 80% 20k $512k (exactly $512,045) Element Games, LLC
Brigador Killers · EA $24.99 572 69% 17k $429k (exactly $428,828) Stellar Jockeys, Gausswerks
Galactic Glitch $12.99 920 89% 28k $359k (exactly $358,524) Crunchy Leaf Games
Ocean Keeper: Dome Survival $9.99 826 77% 25k $248k (exactly $247,552) RetroStyle Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.