Do I ship it?

Games › Fighting › Fighting + Sandbox

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sandbox Fighting game?

Fighting + Sandbox

Only 11 developers shipped a Sandbox Fighting game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Half Sword, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 8 more are announced.

Verdict: strong odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $76k, ×51 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 7 in 10 cleared $11k. Revenue is up 9385% on the market; 8 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×1.1 per shipper.

Deciding numbers: median 50.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 9385% on the market, 8 announced, ×1.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Fighting + Sandbox
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $563k → $11k → $19k → $4.9M (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Fighting + Sandbox: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $11k (exactly $11,078)
Median $76k (exactly $75,745)
Top 25% $550k (exactly $550,216)
Top 5% $21M (exactly $21,483,403)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 51
Announced 8
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $13.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 9385% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Fighting
effort 7 / 10 · low · frame data, hitboxes and rollback netcode
Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Fighting, Sandbox
Price point
$13.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 71% positive over 37,417 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $12k, median $76k, 1 in 4 over $550k, 1 in 20 over $21M.

3 in 10 developers made under $12k. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 8 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Fighting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Score AttackLong shot13 devs · median $599 · 11 announced
  2. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $117k · 26 announced
  3. + Dark FantasyPoor odds11 devs · median $56k · 23 announced
  4. + Souls-likePoor odds8 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  5. + SwordplayPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  7. + CyberpunkPoor odds5 devs · median $9.6k · 18 announced
  8. + Local Co-OpPoor odds41 devs · median $9.4k · 45 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds45 devs · median $9.0k · 64 announced
  10. + Hack and SlashPoor odds29 devs · median $8.7k · 60 announced
  11. + AdventurePoor odds44 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced
  12. + Spectacle fighterPoor odds25 devs · median $7.2k · 40 announced

All 67 pairs on the Fighting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Batman™: Arkham Knight 2015 · $67M Blade and Sorcery 2024 · $53M Sleeping Dogs: Definitive Edition 2014 · $42M Batman: Arkham City - Game of the Year Edition 2012 · $34M Batman™: Arkham Origins 2013 · $27M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Batman™: Arkham Knight older $19.99 111,190 92% 3.3M $67M (exactly $66,680,643) Rocksteady Studios
Blade and Sorcery older $29.99 59,074 96% 1.8M $53M (exactly $53,148,878) WarpFrog
Sleeping Dogs: Definitive Edition older $19.99 70,499 94% 2.1M $42M (exactly $42,278,250) United Front Games, Feral Interactive (… (United Front Games, Feral Interactive (Mac))
Batman: Arkham City - Game of the Year Edition older $19.99 55,935 95% 1.7M $34M (exactly $33,544,219) Rocksteady Studios
Batman™: Arkham Origins older $19.99 45,536 90% 1.4M $27M (exactly $27,307,939) WB Games Montreal, Splash Damage
Half Sword · EA $24.99 28,656 71% 860k $21M (exactly $21,483,403) Half Sword Games
Paint the Town Red older $19.99 29,141 96% 874k $17M (exactly $17,475,858) South East Games
WWE 2K25 $59.99 4,108 73% 123k $7.4M (exactly $7,393,168) Visual Concepts
WWE 2K26 $69.99 2,310 56% 69k $4.9M (exactly $4,850,307) Visual Concepts
Overgrowth older $19.99 6,202 86% 186k $3.7M (exactly $3,719,339) Wolfire Games
Gladio Mori $15.99 1,147 82% 34k $550k (exactly $550,216) Plebeian Studio
MMA Life Simulator $16.99 435 80% 13k $222k (exactly $221,719) BNS7
Last Drop · EA $13.99 278 87% 8.3k $117k (exactly $116,677) Lohkare Games Oy
King of Bones $7.99 316 85% 9.5k $76k (exactly $75,745) Gluten Free Games
Boxing Simulator $7.99 79 79% 2.4k $19k (exactly $18,936) Inogames
Melon Simulator™ $4.99 74 85% 2.2k $11k (exactly $11,078) Delirious & Co.
Turn Based Boxing: Tactics - Legends Edition $9.99 14 85% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) The Slanted Room

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.