Do I ship it?

Games › Sandbox › Sandbox + Programming

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Programming Sandbox?

Sandbox + Programming

Of 60 developers who shipped a Programming Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 71 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.0k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $900. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 71 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 71 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Programming
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 60
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $36k → $60k → $32k → $3.0k → $65k → $7.2k → $5.3k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Programming: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 60
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $7.0k (exactly $7,008)
Top 25% $65k (exactly $64,757)
Top 5% $789k (exactly $789,205)
Developers, 2 yr 60
Released games 172
Announced 71
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 135% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Programming
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Programming; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Automation, Puzzle
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 16,782 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $7.0k, 1 in 4 over $64k, 1 in 20 over $780k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 6 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 71 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  6. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  7. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  8. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  9. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  10. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  11. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced
  12. + IncrementalFair196 devs · median $748 · 248 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Stormworks: Build and Rescue 2020 · $41M Starbase 2021 · EA · $6.5M Mad Games Tycoon 2 2023 · $5.5M Software Inc. 2015 · EA · $5.2M Opus Magnum 2017 · $3.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stormworks: Build and Rescue older $24.99 54,649 90% 1.6M $41M (exactly $40,970,355) Geometa
Starbase · EA older $34.99 6,217 56% 187k $6.5M (exactly $6,525,985) Frozenbyte
Mad Games Tycoon 2 older $24.99 7,355 93% 221k $5.5M (exactly $5,514,044) Eggcode
Software Inc. · EA older $22.99 7,576 94% 227k $5.2M (exactly $5,225,167) Coredumping
Opus Magnum older $19.99 5,964 97% 179k $3.6M (exactly $3,576,611) Zachtronics
Turing Complete · EA older $19.99 5,520 95% 166k $3.3M (exactly $3,310,344) LevelHead
while True: learn() older $12.99 7,350 91% 221k $2.9M (exactly $2,864,295) Luden.io
The Farmer Was Replaced $9.99 9,116 95% 273k $2.7M (exactly $2,732,065) Timon Herzog
Autonauts older $19.99 3,596 90% 108k $2.2M (exactly $2,156,521) Denki
Juno: New Origins older $19.99 3,085 89% 93k $1.9M (exactly $1,850,074) Jundroo, LLC
Desynced $29.99 1,879 79% 56k $1.7M (exactly $1,690,536) Stage Games Inc.
SimplePlanes 2 · EA $19.99 1,316 92% 39k $789k (exactly $789,205) Jundroo, LLC
Kaizen: A Factory Story $19.99 694 91% 21k $416k (exactly $416,192) Coincidence
Omega Crafter $24.99 529 77% 16k $397k (exactly $396,591) Preferred Networks
Craftomation 101: Programming & Craft $14.99 636 83% 19k $286k (exactly $286,009) Luden.io
ServiceIT: You can do IT $12.99 676 56% 20k $263k (exactly $263,437) picture4u
Data Center $8.99 916 76% 27k $247k (exactly $247,045) Waseku
Replicube $9.99 709 96% 21k $212k (exactly $212,487) Walaber Entertainment LLC
Craftlings $19.99 311 86% 9.3k $187k (exactly $186,507) ARIANO Games GmbH

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.