Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Idler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Idler Sandbox?

Sandbox + Idler

Of 258 developers who shipped an Idler Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 306 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $360. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 306 games are announced against 183 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 306 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Idler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 258
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $449 → $12k → $958 → $1.8k → $1.9k → $1.1k (still earning) → $598 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Idler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 258
Bottom 30% $358 (exactly $358)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $6.1k (exactly $6,110)
Top 5% $262k (exactly $261,502)
Developers, 2 yr 258
Released games 498
Announced 306
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 130% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Idler; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Building
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 2D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 44,139 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $6.1k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 93 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 306 games are announced against 183 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IncrementalFair196 devs · median $748 · 248 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
WorldBox - God Simulator · EA older $19.99 51,071 95% 1.5M $31M (exactly $30,627,279) Maxim Karpenko
Farm Together 2 $25.99 4,456 93% 134k $3.5M (exactly $3,474,343) Milkstone Studios
The Farmer Was Replaced $9.99 9,116 95% 273k $2.7M (exactly $2,732,065) Timon Herzog
Lessaria: Fantasy Kingdom Sim $24.90 2,938 77% 88k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,686) Rockbee Team
Berry Bury Berry $7.99 8,619 98% 259k $2.1M (exactly $2,065,974) Get(Color) Games
Ages of Conflict: World War Simulator · EA older $6.99 8,904 96% 267k $1.9M (exactly $1,867,169) JoySpark Games
BitCraft Online · EA $15.99 3,334 72% 100k $1.6M (exactly $1,599,320) Clockwork Laboratories, Inc.
Fly Corp older $14.99 3,112 85% 93k $1.4M (exactly $1,399,466) KishMish Games
Farm Manager 2021 older $19.99 2,296 79% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,376,911) Cleversan Games
Tiny Pasture $5.99 7,055 92% 212k $1.3M (exactly $1,267,784) CaveLiquid
Fortune Mill $7.99 3,712 81% 111k $890k (exactly $889,766) Lavaflame2
Hotel Galactic · EA $34.99 594 73% 18k $624k (exactly $623,522) EndGameLoop Games
Maltese's Fluffy Onsen $5.99 2,727 94% 82k $490k (exactly $490,042) Sinkhole Studio, Moonlab Studio
Birdwatching Notebook $9.99 1,588 97% 48k $476k (exactly $475,924) Biekka Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.