Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Cats

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cat Sandbox?

Sandbox + Cats

Of 63 developers who shipped a Cat Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 74 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×7.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $900. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 74 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 74 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Cats
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 63
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $169k → $4.3k → $17k → $114k → $8.6k → $4.2k → $2.8k (still earning) → $8.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Cats: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 63
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $4.8k (exactly $4,798)
Top 25% $36k (exactly $36,242)
Top 5% $490k (exactly $490,042)
Developers, 2 yr 63
Released games 114
Announced 74
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Cats
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Life Sim, Building
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, Relaxing, Cozy
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 36,831 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $4.8k, 1 in 4 over $36k, 1 in 20 over $490k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 6 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 74 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  7. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  8. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  9. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  10. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  11. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced
  12. + IncrementalFair196 devs · median $748 · 248 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
inZOI · EA $39.99 30,020 77% 901k $36M (exactly $36,014,994) inZOI Studio
Little Kitty, Big City older $24.99 10,423 96% 313k $7.8M (exactly $7,814,123) Double Dagger Studio
while True: learn() older $12.99 7,350 91% 221k $2.9M (exactly $2,864,295) Luden.io
Critter Cove · EA older $24.99 1,735 94% 52k $1.3M (exactly $1,300,730) Gentleman Rat Studios
Bookshop Simulator $15.99 1,496 92% 45k $718k (exactly $717,631) Blep Games
Snacko $24.99 888 95% 27k $666k (exactly $665,734) Bluecurse Studios
Everdream Valley older $24.99 708 70% 21k $531k (exactly $530,788) Mooneaters
Maltese's Fluffy Onsen $5.99 2,727 94% 82k $490k (exactly $490,042) Sinkhole Studio, Moonlab Studio
MewnBase older $9.99 1,331 92% 40k $399k (exactly $398,901) Cairn4
I Am Cat $19.99 526 68% 16k $315k (exactly $315,442) NEW FOLDER GAMES
Learning Factory $14.99 390 84% 12k $175k (exactly $175,383) Luden.io
Cozy Keep: Farm, Craft, Manage · EA $14.99 315 93% 9.5k $142k (exactly $141,656) Unbossed Games
Catizens $17.77 214 81% 6.4k $114k (exactly $114,083) badopticsgames
Everdream Village · EA $19.99 107 69% 3.2k $64k (exactly $64,168) Mooneaters
Seclusa $12.99 148 97% 4.4k $58k (exactly $57,676) Studio Niente

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.