Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Auto Battler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Auto Battler Sandbox?

Sandbox + Auto Battler

Of 45 developers who shipped an Auto Battler Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $600. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 42 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 42 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Auto Battler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 45
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $718 → $9.3k → $6.9k → $16k → $4.2k → $1.9k → $839 (still earning) → $3.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Auto Battler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 45
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,918)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $16,484)
Top 5% $753k (exactly $753,448)
Developers, 2 yr 45
Released games 81
Announced 42
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Auto Battler
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Auto Battler; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, Combat
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Relaxing, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 8,657 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $750k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 42 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  10. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  11. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced
  12. + IncrementalFair196 devs · median $748 · 248 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ages of Conflict: World War Simulator · EA older $6.99 8,904 96% 267k $1.9M (exactly $1,867,169) JoySpark Games
Yaoling: Mythical Journey $19.99 2,854 90% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,711,544) RAYKA STUDIO
Ballionaire $12.34 2,398 85% 72k $888k (exactly $887,740) newobject
Godhood older $26.99 970 70% 29k $785k (exactly $785,409) Abbey Games
Citadelum $24.99 1,005 83% 30k $753k (exactly $753,448) Abylight Barcelona
Fish Game older $24.99 589 93% 18k $442k (exactly $441,573) A Shell in the Pit Games, Creative Ink… (A Shell in the Pit Games, Creative Ink Games)
GLADIABOTS - AI Combat Arena older $14.99 846 87% 25k $380k (exactly $380,446) GFX47
Gratuitous Space Battles older $14.99 568 72% 17k $255k (exactly $255,430) Positech Games
TRADESMAN: Deal to Dealer $4.99 1,528 78% 46k $229k (exactly $228,742) AZAMATIKA
NationWar2:Chronicle $16.99 378 78% 11k $193k (exactly $192,667) Yiming
The Bibites: Digital Life · EA $9.99 218 96% 6.5k $65k (exactly $65,335) Omnia Studios
Folk Emerging $24.99 73 86% 2.2k $55k (exactly $54,728) Curious Dynamics
ploink $12.99 91 96% 2.7k $35k (exactly $35,463) Pyrocreep
Lords and Legions · EA $18.99 59 74% 1.8k $34k (exactly $33,612) Warborne Studios
NebuLeet $15.99 53 90% 1.6k $25k (exactly $25,424) quasilyte

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.