Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Romance

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Romance Sports game?

Sports + Romance

Of 21 developers who shipped a Romance Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.2k, ×6.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $510k, ×827 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 25 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 25 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Romance
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $299 → $19k → $4.3k → $3.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Romance: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $4.2k (exactly $4,194)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $19,181)
Top 5% $519k (exactly $519,380)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 65
Announced 25
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Romance
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Dating Sim, Simulation, Visual Novel
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Cute, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 17,869 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $4.2k, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $510k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 6 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Le Mans Ultimate $39.99 15,068 79% 452k $18M (exactly $18,077,080) Studio 397
Aokana - Four Rhythms Across the Blue older $34.99 5,080 97% 152k $5.3M (exactly $5,332,476) sprite, NekoNyan Ltd.
Little Busters! English Edition older $34.99 1,097 97% 33k $1.2M (exactly $1,151,521) VisualArts/Key
Aokana - Four Rhythms Across the Blue - EXTRA2 older $24.99 1,400 99% 42k $1.0M (exactly $1,049,580) sprite, NekoNyan Ltd.
Academy Love Saga: Tennis Angels EX $9.99 1,733 85% 52k $519k (exactly $519,380) Tora Creatives
Westview Academy - Season 1 $12.99 419 73% 13k $163k (exactly $163,284) TakoYuh
TOGETHER VR older $12.99 335 62% 10k $131k (exactly $130,550) AURORA Games
Lessons with Chii-chan older $19.99 157 63% 4.7k $94k (exactly $94,153) Orcsoft
Something To Write About: Unbroken: Book One $13.99 201 90% 6.0k $84k (exactly $84,360) SeanchaiStudios
OnlyFap: Fitness Baby 🔞💦 older $6.99 211 62% 6.3k $44k (exactly $44,247) BanzaiProject
Academy Love Saga: Tennis Angels $8.99 163 92% 4.9k $44k (exactly $43,961) Tora Creatives
Sexercise Club $7.99 99 77% 3.0k $24k (exactly $23,730) Dreamers Workshop
Flatinside Simulator · EA $9.99 64 64% 1.9k $19k (exactly $19,181) SncI Studios
Primal Hearts 2 $24.99 23 95% 690 $17k (exactly $17,243) Marmalade
Rebounding Life - Season 1 $12.99 44 79% 1.3k $17k (exactly $17,147) SuperWriter
Virtual Girlfriend $4.99 55 30% 1.7k $8.2k (exactly $8,234) SoerGameStudio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.