Do I ship it?

Games › Swordplay › Swordplay + Roguelite

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelite Swordplay game?

Swordplay + Roguelite

Of 48 developers who shipped a Roguelite Swordplay game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 86 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.3k, ×6.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $540k, ×862 the market median. Revenue is up 1635% on the market; 86 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 1635% on the market, 86 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Swordplay + Roguelite
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 48
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.8k → $16k → $748 → $1.2k → $537 → $21k → $7.2k (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Swordplay + Roguelite: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 48
Bottom 30% $537 (exactly $537)
Median $4.3k (exactly $4,287)
Top 25% $41k (exactly $41,372)
Top 5% $541k (exactly $541,215)
Developers, 2 yr 48
Released games 119
Announced 86
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1635% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Swordplay, Roguelite; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Roguelike
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 11,073 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $4.3k, 1 in 4 over $41k, 1 in 20 over $540k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 86 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Swordplay with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Strategy RPGFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced
  4. + Auto BattlerFair13 devs · median $1.1k · 8 announced
  5. + DeckbuildingFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  6. + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  7. + SamuraiPoor odds12 devs · median $80k · 21 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 22 announced
  9. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds39 devs · median $13k · 79 announced
  10. + FightingPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $12k · 53 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 26 announced

All 115 pairs on the Swordplay page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

We Who Are About To Die 2022 · EA · $5.4M Mortal Sin 2025 · $4.2M Until You Fall 2020 · $2.2M Morbid Metal 2026 · EA · $839k GetsuFumaDen: Undying Moon 2022 · $722k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
We Who Are About To Die · EA older $21.99 8,134 88% 244k $5.4M (exactly $5,366,000) Jordy Lakiere
Mortal Sin $24.99 5,583 94% 167k $4.2M (exactly $4,185,575) Nikola Todorovic
Until You Fall older $24.99 2,883 94% 86k $2.2M (exactly $2,161,385) Schell Games
Morbid Metal · EA $17.99 1,555 81% 47k $839k (exactly $839,233) SCREEN JUICE
GetsuFumaDen: Undying Moon older $24.99 963 76% 29k $722k (exactly $721,961) KONAMI, GuruGuru
Battle Talent older $19.99 1,194 77% 36k $716k (exactly $716,042) Cydream
Ravenbound older $29.99 770 53% 23k $693k (exactly $692,769) Systemic Reaction™
Rustil: Eternal Labyrinth Castle $18.99 950 71% 29k $541k (exactly $541,215) KTMG LLC.
Neverinth older $15.99 948 70% 28k $455k (exactly $454,756) CreAct Games
City of Brass older $19.99 758 77% 23k $455k (exactly $454,573) Uppercut Games Pty Ltd
Backpack Jianghu $13.99 565 80% 17k $237k (exactly $237,130) 背包工作室
DAVY x JONES · EA $17.99 389 82% 12k $210k (exactly $209,943) PARASIGHT
Darkblade Ascent $10.99 551 80% 17k $182k (exactly $181,665) PST Games
小小侠客模拟器 $2.99 1,103 86% 33k $99k (exactly $98,939) 小小游戏
Queen's Blade Re:Build $27.77 93 70% 2.8k $77k (exactly $77,478) SE Mobile and Online Co.,Ltd., C&R… (SE Mobile and Online Co.,Ltd., C&R Creative Studios)
Trials of Valor $18.99 100 95% 3.0k $57k (exactly $56,970) Armored Goblin
Ultimate Hero $9.99 184 65% 5.5k $55k (exactly $55,145) Fishwharf

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.