Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Roguelite

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelite Sports game?

Sports + Roguelite

Of 55 developers who shipped a Roguelite Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 84 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $60; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×211 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 84 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 84 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Roguelite
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 55
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $63k → $1.7k → $4.1k → $15k → $40k → $300 (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Roguelite: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 55
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $37k (exactly $37,049)
Top 5% $133k (exactly $132,644)
Developers, 2 yr 55
Released games 96
Announced 84
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 95% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, Roguelite; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Action, Action Roguelike
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 3,156 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $37k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 6 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 84 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Descenders older $24.99 19,836 95% 595k $15M (exactly $14,871,049) RageSquid
Tape to Tape · EA older $19.99 3,464 92% 104k $2.1M (exactly $2,077,361) Excellent Rectangle
Cursed to Golf older $19.99 693 70% 21k $416k (exactly $415,592) Chuhai Labs
eSports Legend older $9.99 1,035 61% 31k $310k (exactly $310,190) 90Games
Whisker Squadron: Survivor $19.99 485 77% 15k $291k (exactly $290,854) Flippfly LLC
Helskate $24.99 301 65% 9.0k $226k (exactly $225,660) Phantom Coast
Bloody Rally Show older $19.99 248 89% 7.4k $149k (exactly $148,726) Kodo Linija
Golfie older $17.99 275 66% 8.3k $148k (exactly $148,418) Triheart Studio
Lake of Creatures $12.49 354 92% 11k $133k (exactly $132,644) ANTENNA GAMES
Shooters, Ready! $4.99 807 99% 24k $121k (exactly $120,808) おこめたべたべず
Drop Pockets · EA $14.99 243 83% 7.3k $109k (exactly $109,277) Children of Madness
Clutchtime™: Basketball Deckbuilder $19.99 180 77% 5.4k $108k (exactly $107,946) Bigosaur
Pro Jank Footy $14.99 215 80% 6.5k $97k (exactly $96,686) Powerbomb Games, Tinker Town
Hangtime! $9.99 250 77% 7.5k $75k (exactly $74,925) Leo Langlois
Squiggle Football $16.99 144 93% 4.3k $73k (exactly $73,397) Max Barry
Death by Scrolling $7.99 177 77% 5.3k $42k (exactly $42,427) Terrible Toybox NZ

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.