Do I ship it?

GamesTrading Card GameTrading Card Game + Economy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Economy Trading Card Game?

Trading Card Game + Economy

Of 25 developers who shipped an Economy Trading Card Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $590k, ×948 the market median. Revenue is up 100% on the market; 39 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 100% on the market, 39 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Trading Card Game + Economy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.9k → $77k → $719 → $2.7k (still earning) → $16k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Trading Card Game + Economy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,397)
Top 25% $30k (exactly $30,010)
Top 5% $595k (exactly $595,462)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 46
Announced 39
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 100% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Trading Card Game
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Economy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Trading Card Game, Economy; all of the top 25% also carry Collectathon, Immersive Sim, Simulation
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 52,811 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $30k, 1 in 20 over $590k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 7 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Trading Card Game with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  2. + SandboxFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  3. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $1.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Procedural GenerationPoor odds10 devs · median $10k · 26 announced
  5. + TradingPoor odds16 devs · median $10k · 36 announced
  6. + Life SimPoor odds18 devs · median $10k · 21 announced
  7. + CollectathonPoor odds26 devs · median $6.3k · 41 announced
  8. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $6.1k · 25 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds11 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  10. + Auto BattlerPoor odds22 devs · median $3.4k · 27 announced
  11. + Roguelike DeckbuilderPoor odds24 devs · median $3.4k · 38 announced
  12. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $3.1k · 36 announced

All 69 pairs on the Trading Card Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
TCG Card Shop Simulator $19.99 47,357 96% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,399,993) OPNeon Games
Supercar Collection Simulator $12.99 1,528 85% 46k $595k (exactly $595,462) Kiki Games
Card Shop Simulator Multiplayer $11.99 1,609 82% 48k $579k (exactly $578,757) ShaneGame
Rento Fortune: Online Dice Board Game (大富翁) older $4.99 3,063 50% 92k $459k (exactly $458,531) LAN - GAMES LTD
My Wife Threw Out My Card Collection (So I Bought a Dump to Find Them All) ⭐ $7.95 1,601 65% 48k $382k (exactly $381,838) Polnoch
TCG Multiplayer Card Shop Simulator · EA $12.99 198 54% 5.9k $77k (exactly $77,161) Alkame Games
Sports Card Shop Simulator · EA $12.99 155 92% 4.7k $60k (exactly $60,404) OverPowered Team
Table Battle Simulator · EA $12.99 85 74% 2.6k $33k (exactly $33,124) Kiki Games
FeeBay Simulator $5.99 167 91% 5.0k $30k (exactly $30,010) Lake Country Games
Dig for TCG Cards With Your Friends $6.99 77 44% 2.3k $16k (exactly $16,147) 3 Rare Devs
Monstrix TCG Card Shop $9.99 34 55% 1.0k $10k (exactly $10,190) Revolt Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.