Do I ship it?

Games › Swordplay › Swordplay + Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelike Swordplay game?

Swordplay + Roguelike

Of 52 developers who shipped a Roguelike Swordplay game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 72 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $660k, ×1064 the market median. Revenue is up 200% on the market; 72 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 200% on the market, 72 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Swordplay + Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 52
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $1.1k → $11k → $1.0k → $776 → $1.5k → $358 (still earning) → $2.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Swordplay + Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 52
Bottom 30% $358 (exactly $358)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $8.7k (exactly $8,691)
Top 5% $668k (exactly $668,258)
Developers, 2 yr 52
Released games 130
Announced 72
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 200% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Swordplay, Roguelike; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, RPG, Action
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, First-Person, Stylized
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 10,472 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $8.6k, 1 in 20 over $660k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 25 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 72 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Swordplay with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Strategy RPGFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced
  4. + Auto BattlerFair13 devs · median $1.1k · 8 announced
  5. + DeckbuildingFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  6. + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  7. + SamuraiPoor odds12 devs · median $80k · 21 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 22 announced
  9. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds39 devs · median $13k · 79 announced
  10. + FightingPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $12k · 53 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 26 announced

All 115 pairs on the Swordplay page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sifu 2023 · $26M Clone Drone in the Danger Zone 2021 · $22M Mortal Sin 2025 · $4.2M Until You Fall 2020 · $2.2M Morbid Metal 2026 · EA · $839k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sifu older $39.99 21,620 92% 649k $26M (exactly $25,937,514) Sloclap
Clone Drone in the Danger Zone older $19.99 36,084 96% 1.1M $22M (exactly $21,639,575) Doborog Games
Mortal Sin $24.99 5,583 94% 167k $4.2M (exactly $4,185,575) Nikola Todorovic
Until You Fall older $24.99 2,883 94% 86k $2.2M (exactly $2,161,385) Schell Games
Morbid Metal · EA $17.99 1,555 81% 47k $839k (exactly $839,233) SCREEN JUICE
GetsuFumaDen: Undying Moon older $24.99 963 76% 29k $722k (exactly $721,961) KONAMI, GuruGuru
Ravenbound older $29.99 770 53% 23k $693k (exactly $692,769) Systemic Reaction™
Dungeons of Blood and Dream $18.99 1,173 93% 35k $668k (exactly $668,258) Lori Vornoy
Neverinth older $15.99 948 70% 28k $455k (exactly $454,756) CreAct Games
City of Brass older $19.99 758 77% 23k $455k (exactly $454,573) Uppercut Games Pty Ltd
Darkblade Ascent $10.99 551 80% 17k $182k (exactly $181,665) PST Games
小小侠客模拟器 $2.99 1,103 86% 33k $99k (exactly $98,939) 小小游戏
Queen's Blade Re:Build $27.77 93 70% 2.8k $77k (exactly $77,478) SE Mobile and Online Co.,Ltd., C&R… (SE Mobile and Online Co.,Ltd., C&R Creative Studios)
Trials of Valor $18.99 100 95% 3.0k $57k (exactly $56,970) Armored Goblin
Ultimate Hero $9.99 184 65% 5.5k $55k (exactly $55,145) Fishwharf
Lia: Hacking Destiny $14.99 92 96% 2.8k $41k (exactly $41,372) Orube Game Studio
Sword Mistress of the Dungeon Town $17.99 38 65% 1.1k $21k (exactly $20,509) ラブリープリチー超愛してる, Lovely Pretty Ultra Lov… (ラブリープリチー超愛してる, Lovely Pretty Ultra Loving You)

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.