Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Robots

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Robot Sports game?

Sports + Robots

Only 18 developers shipped a Robot Sports game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, BREAK ARTS III, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $180k, ×287 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 25 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 25 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Robots
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.4k → $597 → $899 → $0 → $7.2k → $450 → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Robots: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $2.6k (exactly $2,637)
Top 5% $180k (exactly $180,260)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 78
Announced 25
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Robots
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Physics, Combat
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 472 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $450, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $180k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Nimbatus - The Space Drone Constructor older $19.99 1,758 78% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,054,273) Stray Fawn Studio
Robot Roller-Derby Disco Dodgeball older $9.99 2,258 91% 68k $677k (exactly $676,723) Erik Asmussen
BREAK ARTS III $17.99 334 80% 10k $180k (exactly $180,260) MercuryStudio
Robot Arena III older $19.99 290 27% 8.7k $174k (exactly $173,913) Gabriel Interactive
Frozen Cortex older $24.99 166 72% 5.0k $124k (exactly $124,450) Mode 7
100ft Robot Golf older $9.99 166 71% 5.0k $50k (exactly $49,750) No Goblin
RoboDunk older $14.99 90 95% 2.7k $40k (exactly $40,473) Jollypunch Games
Electro Bop Boxing League $14.99 84 79% 2.5k $38k (exactly $37,775) Developer Dob
Fighting Robots older $2.99 228 54% 6.8k $20k (exactly $20,452) HFM Games
Presentiment of Death older $14.99 45 71% 1.4k $20k (exactly $20,236) XOCUS
The Last Golfer $19.99 12 91% 360 $7.2k (exactly $7,196) Karthik Subramanyam, Andrew Laing
Crazy Robot Ball $5.99 18 100% 540 $3.2k (exactly $3,235) Blue Band Studio
MechaCap Arena $7.99 11 90% 330 $2.6k (exactly $2,637) Paraflux Games
Warranty Not Included · EA $8.99 3 100% 90 $809 (exactly $809) VRXtra
Boxing Machine VR $7.99 3 100% 90 $719 (exactly $719) Vnow Games
Charge! $15.00 1 100% 30 $450 (exactly $450) Honor Games®
Basket Bots $4.99 3 66% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Thibaud Reygner
Inkoid $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Spacecowboy

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.