Do I ship it?

GamesSwordplaySwordplay + Rhythm

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Rhythm Swordplay game?

Swordplay + Rhythm

Only 11 developers shipped a Rhythm Swordplay game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Fresh Tracks, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $39k, ×63 the market median. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 13 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 13 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Swordplay + Rhythm
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $90 → $13k
Outcomes for Swordplay + Rhythm: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,486)
Top 5% $40k (exactly $39,734)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 34
Announced 13
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Rhythm
effort 3 / 10 · medium · audio sync, timing precision and music rights

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Swordplay, Rhythm
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 89% positive over 173 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $39k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. All of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 13 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Swordplay with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Strategy RPGFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced
  4. + Auto BattlerFair13 devs · median $1.1k · 8 announced
  5. + DeckbuildingFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  6. + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  7. + SamuraiPoor odds12 devs · median $80k · 21 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 22 announced
  9. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds39 devs · median $13k · 79 announced
  10. + FightingPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $12k · 53 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 26 announced

All 115 pairs on the Swordplay page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Beat Saber older $19.99 69,750 95% 2.1M $42M (exactly $41,829,075) Beat Games
Synth Riders older $24.99 1,336 92% 40k $1.0M (exactly $1,001,599) Kluge Interactive
CYBRID · EA older $14.99 139 89% 4.2k $63k (exactly $62,508) Tom Reason
Fruit Ninja VR 2 older $24.99 74 75% 2.2k $55k (exactly $55,478) Halfbrick Studios Pty Ltd
Fresh Tracks $24.99 53 94% 1.6k $40k (exactly $39,734) Buffalo Buffalo
SOUNDART older $19.99 57 75% 1.7k $34k (exactly $34,183) MercuryStudio
Disco Samurai $9.99 45 88% 1.4k $13k (exactly $13,486) Pixel Fiber Games
RHYTHMKILL $9.99 45 82% 1.4k $13k (exactly $13,486) GETTAKE
Pixel Samurai older $2.99 115 89% 3.5k $10k (exactly $10,316) ArtofKingsgame
MoonWhite older $0.99 254 97% 7.6k $7.5k (exactly $7,544) MoonWhiteStudio
Unpatterned Cut $9.99 14 100% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Vnow Games
TrainingTiles $9.99 6 100% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) HumanBionics, Jhohan Hernandez
RHYTHMIC · EA $9.99 5 80% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) Polar Studios Robin Kammel
Odania Sports Arena $9.99 1 0% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Odania GmbH
Cadence $3.99 2 100% 60 $239 (exactly $239) BitShift_Games
HAJIKI: Samurai Reflex Action $2.99 2 100% 60 $179 (exactly $179) 電脳鈴木組
Groovy Labs $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Body Mind Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.