Should I ship a PvP Wargame?
PvP + Wargame
Of 154 developers who shipped a PvP Wargame in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 320 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×0.9 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×746 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 320 games are announced against 86 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $300 (exactly $300) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.3k (exactly $1,347) |
| Top 25% | $29k (exactly $29,495) |
| Top 5% | $1.1M (exactly $1,116,921) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 154 |
| Released games | 541 |
| Announced | 320 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 31%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- PvP, Wargame; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, RTS
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 76% positive over 121,065 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 101 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 320 games are announced against 86 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + BaseballFair
- + TransportationFair
- + BasketballFair
- + Football (American)Fair
- + BikesFair
- + GolfFair
- + World War IFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + BilliardsFair
- + TennisLong shot
- + TypingLong shot
- + SpellingLong shot
Comparable games
Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 2024 · $303M 
Squad 2020 · $217M 
WARDOGS 2026 · EA · $70M 
Bodycam 2024 · EA · $60M 
Chivalry 2 2022 · $56M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 | older | $59.99 | 168,628 84% | 5.1M | $303M (exactly $303,479,812) | Saber Interactive |
| | Squad | older | $39.99 | 180,505 82% | 5.4M | $217M (exactly $216,551,848) | Offworld |
| | WARDOGS | · EA | $39.99 | 58,250 81% | 1.7M | $70M (exactly $69,882,525) | BULKHEAD |
| | Bodycam | · EA older | $33.32 | 60,179 80% | 1.8M | $60M (exactly $60,154,928) | Reissad Studio |
| | Chivalry 2 | older | $39.99 | 46,707 79% | 1.4M | $56M (exactly $56,034,388) | Torn Banner Studios |
 | Verdun | older | $59.99 | 28,967 87% | 869k | $52M (exactly $52,131,910) | BlackMill Games |
 | Company of Heroes 3 | older | $59.99 | 24,516 59% | 735k | $44M (exactly $44,121,445) | Relic Entertainment |
 | Foxhole | older | $29.99 | 47,330 79% | 1.4M | $43M (exactly $42,582,801) | Siege Camp |
 | Broken Arrow | $49.99 | 25,924 55% | 778k | $39M (exactly $38,878,223) | Steel Balalaika | |
 | Rising Storm 2: Vietnam | older | $24.99 | 42,381 87% | 1.3M | $32M (exactly $31,773,036) | Antimatter Games, Tripwire Interactive |
 | Tempest Rising | $39.99 | 9,811 87% | 294k | $12M (exactly $11,770,257) | Slipgate Ironworks™ | |
 | Mechabellum | $14.99 | 17,856 84% | 536k | $8.0M (exactly $8,029,843) | Game River | |
 | Gallipoli | $29.99 | 4,015 78% | 120k | $3.6M (exactly $3,612,296) | BlackMill Games | |
 | ZeroSpace | · EA | $39.99 | 1,161 78% | 35k | $1.4M (exactly $1,392,852) | Starlance Studios, Ironward |
 | ICBM: Escalation | $29.99 | 1,248 86% | 37k | $1.1M (exactly $1,122,826) | SoftWarWare | |
 | Empire of the Ants | $39.99 | 931 73% | 28k | $1.1M (exactly $1,116,921) | Tower Five | |
 | '83 | · EA | $29.99 | 1,228 65% | 37k | $1.1M (exactly $1,104,832) | Blue Dot Games |
 | Sudden Strike 5 | $49.99 | 641 75% | 19k | $961k (exactly $961,308) | Kite Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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