Do I ship it?

Games › PvP › PvP + Basketball

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP Basketball game?

PvP + Basketball

Of 25 developers who shipped a PvP Basketball game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.6k, ×1.7 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $750. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 28 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 28 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Basketball
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $657 → $3.1k → $5.1k → $2.9k → $2.6k → $3.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Basketball: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $748 (exactly $748)
Median $2.6k (exactly $2,601)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $12,594)
Top 5% $810k (exactly $809,730)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 69
Announced 28
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Basketball
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP, Basketball; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sports, Local Multiplayer, Online Co-Op
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $69.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $69.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 65% positive over 28,665 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $750, median $2.6k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $800k.

3 in 10 developers made under $750. 9 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  4. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  5. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  6. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  7. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  8. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  9. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  10. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  11. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced
  12. + Match 3Long shot21 devs · median $505 · 29 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

NBA 2K25 2024 · $65M NBA 2K26 2025 · $54M NBA 2K27 2026 · $3.6M Umamusume: Pretty Derby - Party Dash 2024 · $1.9M NBA THE RUN 2026 · $810k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
NBA 2K25 older $69.99 30,969 60% 929k $65M (exactly $65,025,609) Visual Concepts
NBA 2K26 $69.99 25,651 66% 770k $54M (exactly $53,859,405) Visual Concepts
NBA 2K27 $69.99 1,698 53% 51k $3.6M (exactly $3,565,291) Visual Concepts
Umamusume: Pretty Derby - Party Dash older $44.99 1,429 75% 43k $1.9M (exactly $1,928,721) Cygames, Inc., Arc System Works
NBA THE RUN $29.99 900 68% 27k $810k (exactly $809,730) Play by Play Studios
Clutchtime™: Basketball Deckbuilder $19.99 180 77% 5.4k $108k (exactly $107,946) Bigosaur
Looney Tunes: Wacky World of Sports $49.99 34 79% 1.0k $51k (exactly $50,990) Bamtang Games
Nock older $19.99 49 87% 1.5k $29k (exactly $29,385) Normal
Pile Up! Box by Box older $14.99 63 92% 1.9k $28k (exactly $28,331) Seed by Seed
Grapple Hoops older $11.99 75 73% 2.3k $27k (exactly $26,978) Andreas Georgiou
Lacrosse 26 $34.99 17 88% 510 $18k (exactly $17,845) Crosse Studios
Third Person Basketball Court · EA $6.99 67 86% 2.0k $14k (exactly $14,050) kuroki-gaming
NBA BOUNCE $19.99 21 85% 630 $13k (exactly $12,594) Unfinished Pixel SL
Full Court Heroes · EA $15.99 26 38% 780 $12k (exactly $12,472) Tireswing Games
Hoop Fighters: Party Basketball · EA $3.99 71 88% 2.1k $8.5k (exactly $8,499) Team K6

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.