Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Puzzle Sports game?

Sports + Puzzle

Of 75 developers who shipped a Puzzle Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 52 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $620, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $120. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 52 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 52 announced, ×1.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 75
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $1.1k → $3.1k → $597 → $2.8k → $624 → $599 (still earning) → $269 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 75
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $624 (exactly $624)
Top 25% $2.6k (exactly $2,633)
Top 5% $58k (exactly $58,487)
Developers, 2 yr 75
Released games 450
Announced 52
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, Puzzle; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Arcade
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Side Scroller, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 8,837 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $620, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $58k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 72 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 52 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
UFO 50 $24.99 7,134 94% 214k $5.3M (exactly $5,348,360) Mossmouth
Jusant older $24.99 4,123 93% 124k $3.1M (exactly $3,091,013) DON'T NOD
Nimbatus - The Space Drone Constructor older $19.99 1,758 78% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,054,273) Stray Fawn Studio
Wordle older $30.62 1,147 80% 34k $1.1M (exactly $1,053,634) PreoNus Games
Wordle 3 older $30.62 610 78% 18k $560k (exactly $560,346) PreoNus Games
Adorables older $29.99 502 80% 15k $452k (exactly $451,649) White Rabbit
Wordle 4 older $30.62 420 76% 13k $386k (exactly $385,812) PreoNus Games
Wordle 2 older $30.62 394 61% 12k $362k (exactly $361,928) PreoNus Games
Golf Around! older $9.99 823 94% 25k $247k (exactly $246,653) Hough Studio
When Ski Lifts Go Wrong older $14.99 519 87% 16k $233k (exactly $233,394) Hugecalf Studios
Lake of Creatures $12.49 354 92% 11k $133k (exactly $132,644) ANTENNA GAMES
Drop Pockets · EA $14.99 243 83% 7.3k $109k (exactly $109,277) Children of Madness
Puttler $7.99 244 95% 7.3k $58k (exactly $58,487) Bean Juice Studios
Pup Champs $12.99 101 98% 3.0k $39k (exactly $39,360) Afterburn
Galumb $7.99 148 28% 4.4k $35k (exactly $35,476) OB
Wet Passion $4.99 195 81% 5.9k $29k (exactly $29,192) FlirtFit Studios
Stardust Skate $2.99 299 98% 9.0k $27k (exactly $26,820) VchiBan, Aetha
Chess Infinity $9.99 84 63% 2.5k $25k (exactly $25,175) Rockwater Games
TopplePOP: Bungee Blockbusters · EA $14.99 35 97% 1.1k $16k (exactly $15,740) ArkimA

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.