Do I ship it?

GamesSwordplaySwordplay + Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Platformer Swordplay game?

Swordplay + Platformer

Of 35 developers who shipped a Platformer Swordplay game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 99 more are announced, ×5.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×2.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $530k, ×858 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 99 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 99 announced, ×5.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Swordplay + Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.0k → $1.5k → $6.1k → $1.6k → $4.2k → $28k → $539 (still earning) → $4.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Swordplay + Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,556)
Top 25% $8.9k (exactly $8,880)
Top 5% $539k (exactly $538,531)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 126
Announced 99
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Swordplay, Platformer; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Hack and Slash, 2D Platformer
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Retro
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 2,545 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $8.8k, 1 in 20 over $530k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 9 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 99 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Swordplay with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Strategy RPGFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced
  4. + Auto BattlerFair13 devs · median $1.1k · 8 announced
  5. + DeckbuildingFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  6. + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  7. + SamuraiPoor odds12 devs · median $80k · 21 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 22 announced
  9. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds39 devs · median $13k · 79 announced
  10. + FightingPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $12k · 53 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 26 announced

All 115 pairs on the Swordplay page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ older $39.99 153,782 88% 4.6M $184M (exactly $184,492,265) Respawn Entertainment
Nidhogg older $9.99 5,717 90% 172k $1.7M (exactly $1,713,385) Messhof
Bloodthief $19.99 1,017 95% 31k $610k (exactly $609,895) Blargis
Shady Knight $19.99 898 93% 27k $539k (exactly $538,531) Alexey 'cptnsigh'
Nidhogg 2 older $14.99 1,027 82% 31k $462k (exactly $461,842) Messhof
Vernal Edge older $16.99 532 74% 16k $271k (exactly $271,160) Hello Penguin Team LLC
Panzer Paladin older $19.99 334 76% 10k $200k (exactly $200,300) Tribute Games Inc.
Unto The End older $14.99 385 73% 12k $173k (exactly $173,134) 2 Ton Studios
Ato older $14.99 339 97% 10k $152k (exactly $152,448) Tiny Warrior Games
Armed with Wings: Rearmed older $9.99 406 87% 12k $122k (exactly $121,678) Sun-Studios
GIGASWORD $14.99 108 75% 3.2k $49k (exactly $48,568) Studio Hybrid
Lia: Hacking Destiny $14.99 92 96% 2.8k $41k (exactly $41,372) Orube Game Studio
Adventure of Samsara $19.99 66 89% 2.0k $40k (exactly $39,580) Ilex Games
Beholgar 2 $11.99 77 80% 2.3k $28k (exactly $27,697) Serkan Bakar
Sacre Bleu $14.99 46 82% 1.4k $21k (exactly $20,686) Hildring Studio Inc
Janosik 2 $8.99 70 95% 2.1k $19k (exactly $18,879) Onix Games
宗门最后的长老 $2.99 99 96% 3.0k $8.9k (exactly $8,880) KUMA studio
Vindilis $2.99 72 93% 2.2k $6.5k (exactly $6,458) François Mauxion

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.